Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model
@ Bears · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET
Carries1.1
Rush Yards4.7
Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.
Shared model
Joint roster forecast
Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters
Offensive snaps
4%
Defensive snaps
1%
Carries2.34P10–P90 0.0–5.0
Rush yards8.20P10–P90 0.0–42.3
Targets0.23P10–P90 0.0–1.0
Strongest learned context
Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.
The game around the player
Role across game environments.
How the same player changes when the game script changes.
53%
Any-snap probability
RB
Pregame role
Rush yards
carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific
6.63 → 9.63
CHI controls · balanced · neutral pace
NYJ controls · balanced · neutral pace
Targets
team pass volume changes route opportunity; teammate target competition remains player-specific
0.20 → 0.27
One-score game · defensive · slow
CHI controls · high scoring · fast
Carries
team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific
2.08 → 2.58
CHI controls · balanced · neutral pace
NYJ controls · balanced · neutral pace
Receptions
route and target opportunity move with pass volume; catch conversion remains player-specific
0.01 → 0.02
One-score game · defensive · slow
CHI controls · high scoring · fast
Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.
This season
2026 Game Log
No 2026 game data recorded.
Performance history