Week 4 · 2026 · published ranges

The weekly range, explained.

Start with a matchup or two names fighting for the same slot. See the plausible outcomes, identify what creates the floor or ceiling, and adjust the football assumptions that matter to your decision.

Directed this week

Start / sit two names.

Have two players fighting for one lineup slot? Put their ranges on the same line — floor, median, ceiling, and the chance each clears your number.

Open Start / Sit →

Puka Nacua vs Davante AdamsSame game · WR / WR Justin Jefferson vs Ja'Marr ChaseWR / WR Jahmyr Gibbs vs Bijan RobinsonRB / RB

Game environments

Choose the matchup.

Start with the game's most likely shape, then open the players whose volume changes when that shape changes.

Thu, Oct 1 · 8:15 PM ETWeek 4

Pittsburgh Steelers

Cleveland Browns

Win lean: PIT 60%
Total: 38.6
One-score: 43%

Most likely script · 50%

PIT controls

Watch Aaron Rodgers: median 26 pass attempts

Sun, Oct 4 · 9:30 AM ETWeek 4

Indianapolis Colts

Washington Commanders

Win lean: IND 62%
Total: 47.3
One-score: 43%

Most likely script · 49%

IND controls

Watch Daniel Jones: median 23 pass attempts

Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ETWeek 4

Arizona Cardinals

New York Giants

Win lean: ARI 57%
Total: 44.2
One-score: 44%

Most likely script · 48%

ARI controls

Watch Jacoby Brissett: median 16 pass attempts

Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ETWeek 4

Win lean: HOU 58%
Total: 47.5
One-score: 44%

Most likely script · 49%

HOU controls

Watch Dak Prescott: median 29 pass attempts

Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ETWeek 4

Green Bay Packers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Win lean: GB 64%
Total: 39.4
One-score: 42%

Most likely script · 49%

GB controls

Watch Jordan Love: median 39 pass attempts

Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ETWeek 4

Jacksonville Jaguars

Cincinnati Bengals

Win lean: CIN 58%
Total: 51.5
One-score: 44%

Most likely script · 49%

CIN controls

Watch Trevor Lawrence: median 31 pass attempts

Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ETWeek 4

Los Angeles Rams

Philadelphia Eagles

Win lean: LA 57%
Total: 46.7
One-score: 45%

Most likely script · 50%

LA controls

Watch Matthew Stafford: median 25 pass attempts

Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ETWeek 4

New England Patriots

Win lean: BUF 73%
Total: 48.3
One-score: 37%

Most likely script · 50%

One-score game

Watch Drake Maye: median 24 pass attempts

Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ETWeek 4

Win lean: CHI 60%
Total: 42.6
One-score: 44%

Most likely script · 49%

CHI controls

Watch Geno Smith: median 24 pass attempts

Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ETWeek 4

Tennessee Titans

Baltimore Ravens

Win lean: BAL 84%
Total: 43.7
One-score: 29%

Most likely script · 73%

BAL controls

Watch Mitchell Trubisky: median 26 pass attempts

Sun, Oct 4 · 4:05 PM ETWeek 4

Minnesota Vikings

Win lean: MIN 81%
Total: 38.5
One-score: 31%

Most likely script · 72%

MIN controls

Watch Malik Willis: median 21 pass attempts

Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ETWeek 4

San Francisco 49ers

Win lean: SF 60%
Total: 46.7
One-score: 43%

Most likely script · 50%

SF controls

Watch Bo Nix: median 29 pass attempts

Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ETWeek 4

Kansas City Chiefs

Las Vegas Raiders

Win lean: KC 70%
Total: 47.6
One-score: 39%

Most likely script · 52%

One-score game

Watch Patrick Mahomes: median 34 pass attempts

Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ETWeek 4

Los Angeles Chargers

Seattle Seahawks

Win lean: SEA 71%
Total: 43.4
One-score: 39%

Most likely script · 51%

One-score game

Watch Justin Herbert: median 31 pass attempts

Sun, Oct 4 · 8:20 PM ETWeek 4

Carolina Panthers

Win lean: DET 64%
Total: 50.6
One-score: 43%

Most likely script · 50%

DET controls

Watch Jared Goff: median 35 pass attempts

Mon, Oct 5 · 8:15 PM ETWeek 4

Atlanta Falcons

New Orleans Saints

Win lean: NO 58%
Total: 48.6
One-score: 43%

Most likely script · 50%

NO controls

Watch Michael Penix Jr.: median 31 pass attempts