CamWard

6'2"219 lbAge 242 seasonsMiamiDraft 2025 · R1 P1

Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model

@ Ravens · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET

Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring14.1

Pass Attempts30.5

Completions21.2

Pass Yards208.6

Pass TDs0.9

Interceptions0.3

Carries2.4

Rush Yards9.7

Rush TDs0.3

Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.

Shared model

Joint roster forecast

Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters

Relational

Offensive snaps

98%

Defensive snaps

Pass attempts8.62P10–P90 4.0–14.0

Completions8.73P10–P90 4.0–14.0

Pass yards45.4P10–P90 0.0–140.2

Pass TDs0.09P10–P90 0.0–0.0

Carries2.86P10–P90 0.0–6.0

Rush yards11.2P10–P90 0.0–35.3

Rush TDs0.14P10–P90 0.0–1.0

Strongest learned context

Blake Grupe · opp Armand Membou · opp Austin McNamara · opp Truman Jones · team Alontae Taylor · team Dylan Parham · opp Tommy Townsend · team Jeffery Simmons · team

Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.

The game around the player

Role across game environments.

How the same player changes when the game script changes.

Open matchup

99%

Any-snap probability

Pregame role

Rush yards

carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific

8.89 → 13.6

BAL controls · balanced · neutral pace

One-score game · balanced · neutral pace

Pass yards

team pass volume changes attempts; conditional passing efficiency remains player-specific

37.4 → 54.6

BAL controls · defensive · slow

BAL controls · high scoring · fast

Pass attempts

drive pace changes team dropbacks; QB role remains in the guarded marginal

7.61 → 9.63

BAL controls · defensive · slow

BAL controls · high scoring · fast

Carries

team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific

2.54 → 3.20

BAL controls · balanced · neutral pace

One-score game · balanced · neutral pace

Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.

Public receipt

2025 Projection Report Card

Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data

Pass Attempts

±7.6avg miss · 16 wks

Pass Yards

±61.6avg miss · 16 wks

Rush Yards

±8.6avg miss · 16 wks

This season

2026 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CMP	ATT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD
Week 1	NYJ	L 10–23	19	32	140	1	0	4	21	0
Week 2	PHI	L 20–24	13	20	183	0	0	4	7	2
Week 3	@NYG	L 7–12	23	36	181	1	1	1	2	0
3 games			55	88	504	2	1	9	30	2

Performance history

2025 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CMP	ATT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD
Week 1	@DEN	L 12–20	12	28	112	0	0	—	—	—
Week 2	LA	L 19–33	19	33	175	1	0	4	8	0
Week 3	IND	L 20–41	23	38	219	1	1	3	12	0
Week 4	@HOU	L 0–26	10	25	108	0	1	2	22	0
Week 5	@ARI	W 22–21	21	39	265	0	1	1	2	0
Week 6	@LV	L 10–20	26	37	222	1	1	—	—	—
Week 7	NE	L 13–31	25	34	255	1	1	—	—	—
Week 8	@IND	L 14–38	22	37	259	1	1	2	4	0
Week 9	LAC	L 20–27	12	21	145	0	0	2	6	0
Week 11	HOU	L 13–16	24	37	194	1	0	3	33	0
Week 12	SEA	L 24–30	28	42	256	1	0	6	37	1
Week 13	JAX	L 3–25	24	38	141	0	0	1	7	0
Week 14	@CLE	W 31–29	14	28	117	2	1	2	4	0
Week 15	@SF	L 24–37	18	29	170	2	0	1	2	0
Week 16	KC	W 26–9	21	28	228	2	0	2	11	0
Week 17	NO	L 26–34	21	40	251	2	0	2	10	0
Week 18	@JAX	L 7–41	3	3	52	0	0	2	11	1
17 games			323	537	3169	15	7	33	169	2