The research is free · Picks are by request

Read the model.
Pay for the edge.

Every forecast, every explanation, and the complete validation record are published openly and need no account. One thing is not free: a qualified pick, priced against a live market.

Why that line? A distribution loses nothing by being read. A pick does — publishing one at scale moves the number it was priced against. So the forecasts stay open and the selections stay behind a subscription.

What is open, and what is not

Everyone, no account

The research

Freeno card, no sign-up

See the range and the reasoning.

Every supported player forecast for the published slate, the football chain behind it, and the full validation record. Frozen, dated, and open to inspection.

✓Weekly player outcome distributions
✓Start / sit and ceiling-versus-floor comparisons
✓Participation, teammate competition, and matchup explanations
✓Editable assumption stress tests
✓The complete methodology and public model validation

Open the board →

Published openly · Frozen and dated

Props and prediction markets

By request

Beat the Market

$50per month

Price the whole distribution.

Qualified market decisions and programmatic access to every supported player–market output, on top of everything published openly.

✓Everything published openly, plus:
✓Qualified, timestamped picks when a frozen rule clears
✓Displayed line, fair probability, threshold, and frozen pregame signal
✓API access to every relevant player–market pair on the current slate
✓Distribution summaries, exact PMFs where served, availability, and model status

Request access →

No self-serve signup · Set up by hand

Model logic, exposed

Each served forecast carries its model identity, timestamp, assumptions, and explicit data gaps.

No hidden certainty

Ranges, tails, and whether this is a pick stay visible instead of collapsing into one confident number.

No forced picks

Beat the Market publishes only when the current price still clears the rule.

How to get it

Beat the Market is not open for self-serve signup. That is deliberate rather than a gap: the selection engine publishes only while a live odds feed is running, so access is arranged by hand for the people who actually need it instead of sold on a standing monthly charge.

Write with what you are trying to price and we will set an account up. Everything else on this site stays free and needs no account at all.

Request access →

Inspect the API contract Audit the evidence