GenoSmith

6'2"221 lbAge 3514 seasonsWest VirginiaDraft 2013 · R2 P39

Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model

@ Bears · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET

Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring12.9

Pass Attempts30.3

Completions22.2

Pass Yards222.9

Pass TDs1.2

Interceptions0.9

Carries2.7

Rush Yards10.2

Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.

Shared model

Joint roster forecast

Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters

Relational

Offensive snaps

95%

Defensive snaps

Pass attempts24.9P10–P90 14.0–38.0

Completions18.4P10–P90 11.0–27.0

Pass yards166.2P10–P90 71.4–261.1

Pass TDs0.92P10–P90 0.0–2.0

Interceptions0.29P10–P90 0.0–1.0

Carries3.04P10–P90 0.0–6.0

Rush yards6.47P10–P90 0.0–30.6

Strongest learned context

Joey Slye · opp Tommy Townsend · opp Morgan Cox · opp Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson · opp Jamien Sherwood · team Trevin Wallace · team Joseph Ossai · team Braiden McGregor · team

Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.

The game around the player

Role across game environments.

How the same player changes when the game script changes.

Open matchup

99%

Any-snap probability

Pregame role

Pass yards

team pass volume changes attempts; conditional passing efficiency remains player-specific

136.7 → 198.9

One-score game · defensive · slow

CHI controls · high scoring · fast

Rush yards

carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific

5.24 → 7.61

CHI controls · balanced · neutral pace

NYJ controls · balanced · neutral pace

Pass attempts

drive pace changes team dropbacks; QB role remains in the guarded marginal

21.9 → 27.8

One-score game · defensive · slow

CHI controls · high scoring · fast

Carries

team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific

2.70 → 3.36

CHI controls · balanced · neutral pace

NYJ controls · balanced · neutral pace

Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.

Public receipt

2025 Projection Report Card

Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data

Pass Attempts

±8.5avg miss · 15 wks

Pass Yards

±70.2avg miss · 15 wks

Rush Yards

±9.1avg miss · 15 wks

This season

2026 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CMP	ATT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	CAR	RUSH YDS
Week 1	@TEN	W 23–10	19	24	215	0	3	10
Week 2	GB	L 17–20	27	40	247	1	5	17
Week 3	@DET	L 24–31	31	39	321	3	2	12
3 games			77	103	783	4	10	39

Performance history

2025 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CMP	ATT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD
Week 1	@NE	W 20–13	24	33	362	1	1	1	11	0
Week 2	LAC	L 9–20	24	43	180	0	3	5	20	0
Week 3	@WAS	L 24–41	19	30	289	3	0	2	5	0
Week 4	CHI	L 24–25	14	20	117	2	3	4	31	0
Week 5	@IND	L 6–40	25	36	228	0	2	3	8	0
Week 6	TEN	W 20–10	17	23	174	1	1	1	0	0
Week 7	@KC	L 0–31	10	16	67	0	0	2	1	0
Week 9	JAX	L 29–30	29	40	284	4	1	5	9	0
Week 10	@DEN	L 7–10	16	26	143	0	1	3	7	0
Week 11	DAL	L 16–33	27	42	238	1	1	3	15	0
Week 12	CLE	L 10–24	30	44	285	1	0	3	8	0
Week 13	@LAC	L 14–31	18	23	165	2	1	1	-5	0
Week 14	DEN	L 17–24	13	21	116	1	0	1	4	0
Week 16	@HOU	L 21–23	16	23	201	2	1	—	—	—
Week 17	NYG	L 10–34	20	28	176	1	2	1	1	0
15 games			302	448	3025	19	17	35	115	0