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Evidence · five-model portfolio

The record, at a glance.

Every qualifying pick across rush attempts, rushing yards, receptions, combined tackles and QB pass attempts, counted and graded: the full 2025 season and 2026 so far. Filter the curve by market or by book. The picks themselves are shared on request.

Five-model portfolio · 2026

Every pick, week by week.

+25.2u
179–146 · +7.7% ROI · 325 picks
Cumulative units
Total profit and loss
One unit per pick
Sunday games · best book · T−89 to T−54
0u+8u+17u+25u123+25.2 UNITS
2026 by market
Rush attempts
51 picks · +4.9u · +9.5%
Rushing yards
38 picks · +7.2u · +19.0%
Receptions
124 picks · -7.0u · -5.6%
Combined tackles
85 picks · +16.7u · +19.6%
QB pass attempts
27 picks · +3.4u · +12.6%

Weeks 1–3, re-run after the fact with the models the portfolio uses today, on the inputs a live run would have had: official inactives, data available before kickoff, and every sportsbook's price when the pick would have been made, 54–89 minutes before kickoff. No 2026 results were used to fit the models (earlier 2026 games enter only as pregame history), but the models were finished after these weeks, so this is a retrospective check, not a forward record. Every 2026 week is re-scored whenever a model changes, so these results can move.

Execution reality
Signal return ≠ scalable return

This one-unit record does not model stake limits, line movement, partial fills or account restrictions. Picks in the same game can move together, and a player can carry picks in more than one market.

Book
2026 · scored per book

Each book on its own: the picks the portfolio would have made if that book were the only venue, and the model's probability against that book's no-vig price on every line it posted. Lower log loss is better; a negative gap means the model beat the book. Select a book to chart it.

BookPicksW–LUnitsROILines scoredModel log lossBook log lossGap
234139–95+35.2u+15.0%9000.68850.6938-0.0053
17594–81+6.1u+3.5%7940.68730.6924-0.0051
7540–35+4.6u+6.2%5240.68710.6885-0.0014
6836–32+3.7u+5.4%4950.68740.6881-0.0007
8241–41-2.4u-2.9%4170.69580.6937+0.0021
86–2+3.2u+40.4%1050.69150.6946-0.0031
Not in portfolio115–6-1.6u-15.0%630.70490.6961+0.0087
The picks

Every pick is counted and graded here, but the picks themselves are withheld: each row shows its market, estimated edge and result, not the player, game, line, book, price or model probability. Each row carries a fingerprint. If we share a pick with you, you can check it against its row, which proves it was not swapped after the fact. Request picks.

Week 1134 picks72–62+7.13u
MarketEst. EVResultFingerprint
Rush attempts+6.5%win+0.94u0493731f5612
Rush attempts+14.5%loss-1.00u19ba92fc3495
Rush attempts+8.2%win+0.87u217312154cdc
Rush attempts+14.7%win+0.90u26ffdcd64eff
Rush attempts+4.2%loss-1.00u356505a134f8
Rush attempts+9.4%win+0.98u45e9438cf578
Rush attempts+5.6%win+1.00u560f57a9ac14
Rush attempts+18.6%loss-1.00u5e1bc6a55eb6
Rush attempts+5.0%loss-1.00u68234a083a8b
Rush attempts+10.9%win+0.80u755f0df42862
Rush attempts+4.7%loss-1.00u798f4d811e54
Rush attempts+13.1%win+0.91u7cd314469eb3
Rush attempts+7.8%loss-1.00u8648ca87c4da
Rush attempts+7.5%loss-1.00u8bbd113b2c47
Rush attempts+21.8%loss-1.00u8e911b84de09
Rush attempts+25.9%win+1.05u9389eff27f12
Rush attempts+6.3%win+0.83u9eedf92e1559
Rush attempts+6.5%loss-1.00ua021b27225ef
Rush attempts+5.6%win+1.05ua9180a8e0cd2
Rush attempts+15.5%win+0.78uabb8b91dc4f1
Rush attempts+15.3%win+0.89ube6566347621
Rush attempts+23.8%loss-1.00udb584b957772
Rush attempts+14.9%win+0.88udfc79a26c237
Rush attempts+20.2%win+0.86uf7406d11d12d
QB pass attempts+27.9%loss-1.00u039163d007dd
QB pass attempts+12.7%loss-1.00u195b0fecb112
QB pass attempts+15.1%win+0.89u19f0feebbde2
QB pass attempts+15.0%win+0.92u3128570220df
QB pass attempts+12.2%win+0.97u45baf3d8c4ba
QB pass attempts+33.6%loss-1.00u46f6e07c9876
QB pass attempts+11.2%win+0.88u618ab975933a
QB pass attempts+18.7%win+0.91u74b47fe8b395
QB pass attempts+16.1%loss-1.00u7b2320ff3edf
QB pass attempts+11.1%loss-1.00uc1d0b89ec1e5
QB pass attempts+34.3%loss-1.00ue35652193674
QB pass attempts+23.9%win+0.88ufa93dce44f41
Receptions+4.1%loss-1.00u0e6cd0a0bfa8
Receptions+4.1%loss-1.00u0f033e9cdd1a
Receptions+6.2%loss-1.00u11bfbfb6e740
Receptions+5.2%loss-1.00u146e64a1e26a
Receptions+10.7%loss-1.00u1534c9ae3905
Receptions+2.8%win+1.22u2841563e575b
Receptions+6.3%win+1.22u2da4bcd9c748
Receptions+7.3%win+0.93u3ec0e5585852
Receptions+3.5%win+0.90u44f0beb0b2ee
Receptions+4.3%win+1.00u49784fc59cb1
Receptions+9.1%loss-1.00u4e525c3f2be2
Receptions+2.5%win+1.25u4fb6f73fa3ae
Receptions+2.4%loss-1.00u516e7f076c88
Receptions+4.0%win+0.77u55495438e10d
Receptions+6.9%loss-1.00u6386b45a8093
Receptions+4.7%loss-1.00u65d28c3eba4c
Receptions+3.7%loss-1.00u6b76dcc5d451
Receptions+3.7%win+1.41u6bf2e8d178c4
Receptions+2.4%win+0.67u70c351861c56
Receptions+3.5%loss-1.00u70e1283f3fca
Receptions+12.7%win+0.91u725505f31446
Receptions+5.6%loss-1.00u75c720aad3bd
Receptions+16.6%loss-1.00u7b4d7d7c03d4
Receptions+5.1%loss-1.00u834259901b03
Receptions+6.3%win+1.20u8c9696ae8688
Receptions+3.9%win+0.65u8d28cda9b03e
Receptions+4.9%loss-1.00u8d559975152c
Receptions+4.7%win+1.40u95d22e01f055
Receptions+9.3%loss-1.00u99027413b520
Receptions+2.5%loss-1.00u9b4e55cb14b4
Receptions+8.6%loss-1.00u9c20d720c4ff
Receptions+5.2%loss-1.00ua897c6a67e77
Receptions+2.2%win+1.10ub71837574441
Receptions+17.1%win+1.28ub93218735cf4
Receptions+14.8%win+1.35uc543a08e54dc
Receptions+2.5%loss-1.00ud1e0f50fd931
Receptions+6.2%loss-1.00ud501ca890bc0
Receptions+5.1%loss-1.00ue05e58a5e736
Receptions+7.4%loss-1.00ufc865387ab61
Receptions+6.1%loss-1.00ufe0562b87f91
Receptions+9.2%win+1.22uffb9bcf77c32
Combined tackles+2.6%win+0.83u02b6eb8efc54
Combined tackles+13.1%loss-1.00u03435fe57952
Combined tackles+2.2%loss-1.00u0474a338953c
Combined tackles+11.4%loss-1.00u21b87108fa8c
Combined tackles+32.0%win+0.67u2f0fa1ab1237
Combined tackles+8.1%loss-1.00u32cd7b752d5b
Combined tackles+18.4%win+1.00u349fb5d83041
Combined tackles+17.1%win+0.96u3d5f99d3d511
Combined tackles+18.1%loss-1.00u3d8ed248f405
Combined tackles+12.4%loss-1.00u3ff864931f63
Combined tackles+2.1%loss-1.00u40c47645c6ae
Combined tackles+12.7%win+0.74u42c2ab0cabc8
Combined tackles+18.5%loss-1.00u451278bfa949
Combined tackles+5.1%win+1.15u50658efc274d
Combined tackles+8.4%win+1.28u50f23fef7119
Combined tackles+2.9%win+0.72u53cab3b622c9
Combined tackles+7.7%loss-1.00u5a689d129693
Combined tackles+3.3%win+1.11u5adf78549b2c
Combined tackles+5.6%win+0.93u5df42cb108dd
Combined tackles+8.5%loss-1.00u63f19424c861
Combined tackles+13.6%loss-1.00u6584679ac59b
Combined tackles+5.4%win+1.14u7febdf6b12ef
Combined tackles+30.3%win+0.98u84947d95884b
Combined tackles+4.3%win+0.61u8886ab4c5f95
Combined tackles+15.2%win+0.79u973a118e2dfc
Combined tackles+6.8%win+0.97u9b21c39508d4
Combined tackles+4.1%loss-1.00u9dfdf2cf0091
Combined tackles+14.1%win+0.67u9f4e4583d2a0
Combined tackles+5.8%win+0.99ua83fd8b793b4
Combined tackles+3.0%win+0.96uaf62fd8bcc2b
Combined tackles+6.3%win+0.99uc33a6fc5aefb
Combined tackles+6.6%loss-1.00uc4f380dcd0a6
Combined tackles+26.5%loss-1.00ucbeb7243fa41
Combined tackles+9.0%win+0.98ud0be84ef56c6
Combined tackles+3.3%win+0.96udf72f75ef7fc
Combined tackles+12.3%win+1.12uea3c66871180
Combined tackles+21.5%loss-1.00ueb1e572bb0d3
Combined tackles+8.0%win+0.70ueefb72f5132a
Combined tackles+31.5%win+1.15uf0a7c7b68437
Combined tackles+4.1%win+1.27uf992b9c28b7c
Combined tackles+16.0%loss-1.00ufeb31753543c
Rushing yards+9.6%win+0.87u548b5500913a
Rushing yards+2.3%win+0.88u593467a484b8
Rushing yards+5.4%loss-1.00u70cad1e88201
Rushing yards+5.7%win+0.88u725e015db211
Rushing yards+5.5%win+0.88u79ac988f1a20
Rushing yards+2.8%loss-1.00u894a0d9b8901
Rushing yards+10.0%loss-1.00u896a13e60c67
Rushing yards+6.5%win+0.88u8a9a3aad8fc9
Rushing yards+5.1%loss-1.00u8c3022695c13
Rushing yards+8.1%win+0.88uabb365f71d97
Rushing yards+10.9%loss-1.00ub17d542a5e54
Rushing yards+2.6%win+0.87uce27babb8f64
Rushing yards+6.3%loss-1.00udda0a9b7c8f1
Rushing yards+7.7%win+0.88uef8a2f430279
Rushing yards+4.2%win+0.89uf44cca5248d9
Rushing yards+5.3%win+0.88uf80975a020a9
Week 2101 picks61–40+18.08u
MarketEst. EVResultFingerprint
Rush attempts+5.7%loss-1.00u002a906a9fab
Rush attempts+4.9%win+0.98u425667ee7fee
Rush attempts+8.5%loss-1.00u4d4953a9f840
Rush attempts+6.5%win+0.82u548bec2cd7b4
Rush attempts+11.2%win+1.00u55cdc50db5d3
Rush attempts+11.2%win+0.90u586a5af1d9da
Rush attempts+20.2%loss-1.00u734923214762
Rush attempts+14.6%win+0.82u750667e29f06
Rush attempts+5.6%loss-1.00u7b1de920b108
Rush attempts+3.2%loss-1.00u809c4e9a14fd
Rush attempts+17.1%win+0.96u8897d34af4bc
Rush attempts+20.5%win+0.95ubc559120ec87
Rush attempts+5.9%loss-1.00ucaff7850e16a
Rush attempts+7.4%win+1.09ue832e88eb833
Rush attempts+17.7%win+1.00uf05d1c5aaf85
QB pass attempts+19.7%loss-1.00u1b9c0b157d9f
QB pass attempts+10.3%win+0.93u384f1052ef21
QB pass attempts+14.9%win+0.94u5dd582eab0f2
QB pass attempts+25.9%win+0.83ucf106e0b7c5c
QB pass attempts+15.6%win+0.91ud6cff103d474
QB pass attempts+30.1%win+0.86ue2da044806d4
QB pass attempts+13.7%win+0.88uec80fcefcaf6
QB pass attempts+15.4%win+0.85uef61f6873753
Receptions+2.8%win+1.25u05ba896ffffd
Receptions+3.2%loss-1.00u0eb907108b36
Receptions+2.2%loss-1.00u1392ccbbf8a2
Receptions+6.7%win+0.88u1637760dec79
Receptions+4.1%loss-1.00u198209964a2c
Receptions+5.3%loss-1.00u29aed4f30fef
Receptions+3.3%win+0.65u2dbb91131673
Receptions+8.3%win+1.28u30c842ac582a
Receptions+6.9%loss-1.00u3ab14027c902
Receptions+2.3%win+1.16u5d20f8aeeedc
Receptions+7.7%win+1.00u62bf866a1419
Receptions+2.2%loss-1.00u6b993d4af0b3
Receptions+2.0%win+0.82u6ef0d156a00c
Receptions+8.0%loss-1.00u758c53eccc10
Receptions+7.4%loss-1.00u79a664aff3dd
Receptions+6.1%loss-1.00u7b89643171c2
Receptions+4.0%loss-1.00u7fc9488d7f41
Receptions+11.6%win+1.82u80d0984afef2
Receptions+8.7%win+0.87u8347afa4767c
Receptions+12.4%win+1.65u84297f8972c6
Receptions+2.4%loss-1.00u861e7f1826d9
Receptions+6.1%loss-1.00u864f802fe3a1
Receptions+7.6%win+1.06u8b458643eccf
Receptions+6.7%loss-1.00u9018a9209107
Receptions+4.1%win+1.40u914e39de3ea7
Receptions+2.1%win+0.98u9372783fa1b2
Receptions+3.7%loss-1.00u9ac14ac8a7bb
Receptions+2.2%loss-1.00ua7aad241727d
Receptions+2.7%win+1.01uabf82a43b894
Receptions+5.3%win+0.68ub00e1ab9556b
Receptions+3.2%loss-1.00ub45f5636ac81
Receptions+2.7%loss-1.00ub975c6faa0be
Receptions+4.6%loss-1.00ube5a4f771650
Receptions+2.9%loss-1.00uc0b0b36b5d9c
Receptions+2.4%win+1.13uc302dd274209
Receptions+14.7%win+0.61ucbbd67b09ad0
Receptions+3.6%win+0.62ucc2a0ae7bd19
Receptions+6.0%win+1.26ucd4da2772309
Receptions+4.0%win+1.01ue13af6209890
Receptions+4.6%win+1.37ueeba642018ad
Receptions+7.0%loss-1.00uf20ed6e21348
Receptions+3.3%loss-1.00uf28df86193ff
Receptions+2.2%loss-1.00ufb140dcac1be
Combined tackles+2.9%win+0.82u099ac8fe0320
Combined tackles+3.4%loss-1.00u0ebe2ebad80d
Combined tackles+22.1%win+1.16u1ca729b36977
Combined tackles+2.0%win+0.81u40249ee6b2c3
Combined tackles+3.5%loss-1.00u42f80e3beed8
Combined tackles+3.9%loss-1.00u48a89e413293
Combined tackles+2.6%win+0.82u58f33df625f9
Combined tackles+10.2%loss-1.00u5a46cf5fa0b6
Combined tackles+2.9%win+0.67u6334b8eeda40
Combined tackles+5.5%loss-1.00u68fe9a0c98b1
Combined tackles+10.7%win+0.78u6c5a9921549f
Combined tackles+2.9%win+1.21u707f1f1f66c8
Combined tackles+4.7%win+0.97u7330042da1c7
Combined tackles+2.7%win+0.60u86861eda372e
Combined tackles+3.3%win+0.62u948f34b09e90
Combined tackles+5.9%loss-1.00u9c507460e4e4
Combined tackles+4.8%win+0.82ub8618d915487
Combined tackles+3.6%loss-1.00uc06bded8faaf
Combined tackles+3.5%win+0.73ud91506df9cb4
Combined tackles+10.7%loss-1.00udf34dd45ed4b
Combined tackles+4.4%win+1.13ueac007ad7ab5
Combined tackles+2.2%win+0.92ueb4169f6e4a7
Combined tackles+11.0%win+0.77uf082f7fabccd
Rushing yards+3.6%win+0.88u0187bb64bdd2
Rushing yards+4.9%win+0.88u0dcdcfc81ae8
Rushing yards+7.9%loss-1.00u148673bcd762
Rushing yards+4.7%win+0.91u21304d1e7f72
Rushing yards+4.0%win+0.88u298273adc9be
Rushing yards+2.8%loss-1.00u5e230532c35d
Rushing yards+8.0%win+0.87u6c0d059b9a6c
Rushing yards+6.9%win+0.87u9a064f049edd
Rushing yards+3.1%win+0.93uba097e082abc
Rushing yards+2.6%loss-1.00ucce04760b13d
Rushing yards+10.6%win+0.92ud8a1e414e641
Rushing yards+2.6%win+0.88uf1c58f874dd6
Week 390 picks46–44-0.05u
MarketEst. EVResultFingerprint
Rush attempts+3.2%loss-1.00u31c47e0d5dff
Rush attempts+6.2%loss-1.00u375a18b3dc0e
Rush attempts+3.9%loss-1.00u657a6ddb3a4a
Rush attempts+10.5%loss-1.00u68d2bdffd987
Rush attempts+7.4%win+0.84u700b496eadbb
Rush attempts+8.0%win+0.95u7748d069202c
Rush attempts+11.5%win+0.95u7a9cc995d355
Rush attempts+4.3%win+0.94u83ce5b27395d
Rush attempts+9.8%loss-1.00u87fba29b551e
Rush attempts+2.4%win+1.05ua894279c2bfd
Rush attempts+5.0%win+0.88ubcd1e62532bb
Rush attempts+10.6%loss-1.00udba341cfbdb3
QB pass attempts+11.0%loss-1.00u20bba12e8071
QB pass attempts+20.6%loss-1.00u47ae65e29279
QB pass attempts+16.9%loss-1.00u54a56e9785c6
QB pass attempts+13.1%loss-1.00u82c0b9e6b6b7
QB pass attempts+14.0%win+0.97ua98f9c505d71
QB pass attempts+14.5%win+0.88uae5b7ee14f54
QB pass attempts+13.8%win+0.89uec0265d4fff1
Receptions+4.8%loss-1.00u011780a5f091
Receptions+10.1%loss-1.00u02679ff13039
Receptions+8.4%win+1.21u05398521f012
Receptions+8.6%loss-1.00u150bad632351
Receptions+3.8%win+0.94u185434d6c9dc
Receptions+2.6%loss-1.00u1bdb47bc431a
Receptions+5.4%loss-1.00u2a7e148864bf
Receptions+5.1%loss-1.00u2d0f4b6a5990
Receptions+7.8%win+1.25u34e8ae5274c5
Receptions+3.2%loss-1.00u35d3d269c4c3
Receptions+13.1%win+1.10u399f1e3a0d5c
Receptions+6.0%loss-1.00u3bc392ebc1cb
Receptions+9.0%win+0.98u3bc92cb0f0cd
Receptions+2.6%win+0.85u44d65bdca63d
Receptions+5.2%win+0.80u4a87d55a7259
Receptions+4.5%loss-1.00u4ac1f6754d82
Receptions+7.3%win+1.18u4bf197cd37f4
Receptions+4.0%win+1.25u5250b4715c55
Receptions+11.4%loss-1.00u6cc4144df08a
Receptions+2.5%win+0.84u7176aae64e29
Receptions+4.9%win+0.71u71d638892be7
Receptions+9.8%loss-1.00u7c3b1f9b01ad
Receptions+8.1%loss-1.00u7d8a796140da
Receptions+3.2%win+1.05u86432a8efa7e
Receptions+2.9%win+0.80u921d6a2826ec
Receptions+3.2%win+1.20u987f31f3f575
Receptions+3.0%loss-1.00ua07ac0c53925
Receptions+3.8%win+0.69ua88641dd080e
Receptions+4.4%win+1.02ubd51a4e308b9
Receptions+3.3%loss-1.00uc2c4696213a8
Receptions+5.3%win+1.30ucd6f46f76825
Receptions+9.0%loss-1.00uda070d8a9496
Receptions+6.8%win+0.67uda0def460f56
Receptions+5.8%loss-1.00uda8945de3439
Receptions+4.1%loss-1.00udd4cd1d4d0d8
Receptions+6.6%loss-1.00ue11e9e62bb32
Receptions+4.9%win+1.18ue53298f572ef
Receptions+8.2%loss-1.00uf8de213cecbb
Receptions+3.9%loss-1.00ufa4de4df9257
Receptions+6.4%loss-1.00ufd413e02193a
Combined tackles+12.5%loss-1.00u09880a230227
Combined tackles+6.1%win+0.72u0d4437b43ef5
Combined tackles+5.1%win+1.00u158fc80cec86
Combined tackles+8.1%win+0.76u272729d2866f
Combined tackles+6.6%loss-1.00u41e704604190
Combined tackles+11.2%win+0.77u4948d4ce10e1
Combined tackles+2.5%win+0.99u61562239cb20
Combined tackles+3.0%win+0.75u85015cca6dbc
Combined tackles+2.1%win+1.26u8781f81fcacb
Combined tackles+11.4%win+0.85u92eb9676f4ff
Combined tackles+3.3%win+1.02u99fb7d780724
Combined tackles+11.0%loss-1.00u9fad69d87b5f
Combined tackles+4.3%loss-1.00ub0b7925144b2
Combined tackles+8.4%loss-1.00ub43c14cc4d9a
Combined tackles+3.4%win+0.77ubc094a487eca
Combined tackles+2.6%loss-1.00ud48d1d285b35
Combined tackles+3.0%win+0.90ud980a6bb8894
Combined tackles+13.6%win+1.15ue18c42a09598
Combined tackles+2.1%win+1.23ue26f41b117c7
Combined tackles+2.1%loss-1.00uee0925b0c3de
Combined tackles+6.4%loss-1.00uf6e7897a94e6
Rushing yards+4.9%win+0.88u1d2da32132dd
Rushing yards+3.3%win+0.93u270e19cc3767
Rushing yards+2.7%loss-1.00u45b26b259094
Rushing yards+4.2%loss-1.00u5797a7e748ed
Rushing yards+3.3%loss-1.00u585b680ce131
Rushing yards+3.0%win+0.85u910b818ccc01
Rushing yards+2.2%win+0.87u9205db4f3a12
Rushing yards+5.1%loss-1.00uc16c5a0bca57
Rushing yards+5.7%loss-1.00udfba51fab5bc
Rushing yards+5.5%win+0.88ufaaa3b7cbc48

One pick per player, market and game at the best archived price. The combined ROI is a record, not a staking plan. Historical venue coverage does not mean that book is available where you are. Each pick shows its week, market, estimated EV and result. The player, game, line, book, price and model probability are withheld, and every row carries a fingerprint, so any pick we share on request can be checked against its row.

Flagship market

QB pass attempts

Combined 2023–25 replay: +27.58% on 147 bets. 2023 was positive, but its interval includes zero—so the combined result is the claim, not three separately proven seasons.

SeasonBetsGamesROI95% interval
20233533+16.7%[-14.2%, +44.5%]
20246760+29.0%[+6.6%, +49.4%]
20254544+33.9%[+7.7%, +58.9%]
2023–25 combinedThe claim147137+27.6%[+13.3%, +41.6%]
Combined ROI
+27.58%

+40.54 units across 147 bets.

2023 interval
Includes zero

Positive year. Not a standalone proof.

Status
Pick market

Historical replay. Not a live season.

Approved markets

5 markets can publish a pick.

A better forecast is not a pick. Each market needed its own historical replay and a frozen price rule. The price rules are not published.

Pick market

QB pass attempts

147 bets across 2023–2025 · +40.54u · +27.58% ROI · 95% CI +13.31% to +41.65%

Pick market

RB rushing yards

1,577 bets across 2023–2025 · +143.10u · +9.07% ROI · 95% CI +4.19% to +13.84%

Pick market

QB passing yards

454 bets across 2023–2025 · +60.00u · +13.22% ROI · two-week-block 95% CI +3.79% to +22.77%

Pick market

Player sacks

229 frozen 2025 holdout bets · +52.16u · +22.78% ROI · 95% CI +7.41% to +38.42%

One-season holdout, not a three-year replay.

Pick market

Solo tackles

1,474 bets across 2024–2025 · +232.91u · +15.80% ROI · 95% CI +11.39% to +20.11%

How to read this

Three things this page is not saying.

A forecast is not a pick

Lower miss than a baseline is useful. It is not permission to bet that market.

History is not next week

These results are locked replays. They are not a live 2026 season.

The combined number is the claim

One weak year does not cancel the record. It also does not get sold as its own proof.

Forecasts locked 2026-09-05T06:56:55.250090+00:00. Validation 2026-08-31.

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