Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model
vs Jets · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET
Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring20.7
Pass Attempts32.3
Completions20.1
Pass Yards237.2
Pass TDs1.5
Interceptions0.4
Carries4.6
Rush Yards34
Rush TDs0.4
Receptions0.1
Receiving Yards1.1
Receiving TDs0
Solo Tackles0
Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.
Shared model
Joint roster forecast
Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters
Offensive snaps
95%
Defensive snaps
2%
Pass attempts30.4P10–P90 17.0–45.0
Completions18.7P10–P90 11.0–27.0
Pass yards209.8P10–P90 115.0–304.6
Pass TDs1.62P10–P90 0.0–3.0
Interceptions0.13P10–P90 0.0–1.0
Carries5.12P10–P90 1.0–10.0
Rush yards32.7P10–P90 8.6–56.9
Rush TDs0.56P10–P90 0.0–2.0
Strongest learned context
Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.
The game around the player
Role across game environments.
How the same player changes when the game script changes.
99%
Any-snap probability
QB
Pregame role
Rush yards
carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific
25.6 → 39.8
One-score game · defensive · slow
CHI controls · high scoring · fast
Pass yards
team pass volume changes attempts; conditional passing efficiency remains player-specific
173.0 → 246.8
One-score game · defensive · slow
CHI controls · high scoring · fast
Carries
team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific
4.48 → 5.75
One-score game · defensive · slow
CHI controls · high scoring · fast
Pass attempts
drive pace changes team dropbacks; QB role remains in the guarded marginal
27.6 → 32.9
CHI controls · balanced · neutral pace
NYJ controls · balanced · neutral pace
Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.
Public receipt
2025 Projection Report Card
Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data
Pass Attempts
±3.5avg miss · 17 wks
Pass Yards
±36.7avg miss · 17 wks
Rush Yards
±15.9avg miss · 17 wks
Receiving Yards
±4.7avg miss · 6 wks
This season
2026 Game Log
Performance history