Caleb Williams
CHI · QB
52%
clears 25.0 pass attempts
Served forecast
Mixture P10
16.0
Mixture P50
25.0
Mixture P90
38.0
Mixture mean
25.5
← Matchups
Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET · Frozen Sep 29
NYJ
New York
Jets
40%
AT
CHI
Chicago
Bears
60%
Lean
CHI 60%
Total
42.6
1-score
44%
R1
29%
NYJ controls
R4
26%
CHI controls
R3
23%
CHI controls
R2
22%
One-score game
Geno Smith
NYJ · QB · pass attempts
Served forecast
52%
clears 16 pass attempts
Floor
8.0
Median
16
Ceiling
31
How the passing volume is built
17.8
Attempts
18.4
Completions
His four scripts
Conditional mean vs mixture
Weighted game environments. Scores describe each cluster's center, not an exact prediction.
Mixture mass · Served forecast
52% of the mixture clears 25 pass attempts
P10 16P50 2525+P90 38
Mixture chain
How the passing volume is built
25
Attempts
16–38 across scripts
18.7
Completions
Expected completions
25 pass attempts
Same inheritance
CHI pass · script swing