BryceYoung

5'10"204 lbAge 254 seasonsAlabamaDraft 2023 · R1 P1

Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model

vs Lions · Sun, Oct 4 · 8:20 PM ET

Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring17.1

Pass Attempts31.2

Completions20.2

Pass Yards219.9

Pass TDs1.8

Interceptions0.7

Carries2.2

Rush Yards13.4

Rush TDs0.2

Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.

Shared model

Joint roster forecast

Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters

Relational

Offensive snaps

98%

Defensive snaps

Pass attempts28.6P10–P90 16.0–43.0

Completions18.9P10–P90 11.0–28.0

Pass yards198.7P10–P90 103.9–293.6

Pass TDs1.34P10–P90 0.0–3.0

Interceptions0.17P10–P90 0.0–1.0

Carries3.29P10–P90 0.0–7.0

Rush yards12.4P10–P90 0.0–36.5

Rush TDs0.09P10–P90 0.0–0.0

Strongest learned context

Jackson Kuwatch · team Kyle Monangai · opp Cairo Santos · opp Aaron Hall · team Sam Martin · team Lee Hunter · team Tory Taylor · opp Beau Gardner · opp

Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.

The game around the player

Role across game environments.

How the same player changes when the game script changes.

Open matchup

99%

Any-snap probability

Pregame role

Rush yards

carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific

9.75 → 15.2

DET controls · defensive · slow

One-score game · high scoring · fast

Pass yards

team pass volume changes attempts; conditional passing efficiency remains player-specific

164.4 → 234.2

DET controls · defensive · slow

One-score game · high scoring · fast

Carries

team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific

2.89 → 3.72

DET controls · defensive · slow

One-score game · high scoring · fast

Pass attempts

drive pace changes team dropbacks; QB role remains in the guarded marginal

26.2 → 31.1

CAR controls · balanced · neutral pace

DET controls · balanced · neutral pace

Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.

Public receipt

2025 Projection Report Card

Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data

Pass Attempts

±7.1avg miss · 16 wks

Pass Yards

±65.3avg miss · 16 wks

Rush Yards

±13.4avg miss · 16 wks

This season

2026 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CMP	ATT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD
Week 1	CHI	L 37–59	23	37	361	3	1	2	10	1
Week 2	@ATL	W 34–3	23	36	287	3	0	1	6	0
Week 3	@CLE	L 18–21	26	47	291	1	1	—	—	—
3 games			72	120	939	7	2	3	16	1

Performance history

2025 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CMP	ATT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD
Week 1	@JAX	L 10–26	18	35	154	1	2	4	41	0
Week 2	@ARI	L 22–27	35	55	328	3	1	1	3	0
Week 3	ATL	W 30–0	16	24	121	0	0	2	8	1
Week 4	@NE	L 13–42	18	30	150	1	0	1	3	0
Week 5	MIA	W 27–24	19	29	198	2	1	1	4	0
Week 6	DAL	W 30–27	17	25	199	3	1	1	8	0
Week 7	@NYJ	W 13–6	15	25	138	1	0	2	10	0
Week 9	@GB	W 16–13	11	20	102	0	1	2	9	0
Week 10	NO	L 7–17	17	25	124	0	1	2	6	0
Week 11	@ATL	W 30–27	31	47	448	3	0	—	—	—
Week 12	@SF	L 9–20	18	30	169	1	2	4	15	0
Week 13	LA	W 31–28	15	20	206	3	0	2	27	0
Week 15	@NO	L 17–20	15	24	163	1	0	7	49	0
Week 16	TB	W 23–20	21	32	191	2	0	3	21	0
Week 17	SEA	L 10–27	14	24	54	0	1	6	30	1
Week 18	@TB	L 14–16	24	34	266	2	1	1	0	0
Week 19	LA	L 31–34	21	40	264	1	1	2	25	1
16 games			325	519	3275	24	12	41	259	3