Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model
vs Jaguars · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET
Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring17.2
Pass Attempts32.7
Completions22.7
Pass Yards236
Pass TDs2.1
Interceptions0.6
Carries1.7
Rush Yards5.4
Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.
Shared model
Joint roster forecast
Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters
Offensive snaps
90%
Defensive snaps
1%
Pass attempts36.8P10–P90 21.0–55.0
Completions22.3P10–P90 13.0–32.0
Pass yards206.7P10–P90 111.9–301.6
Pass TDs1.64P10–P90 0.0–3.0
Interceptions0.56P10–P90 0.0–2.0
Carries2.21P10–P90 0.0–5.0
Rush yards7.90P10–P90 0.0–32.0
Strongest learned context
Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.
The game around the player
Role across game environments.
How the same player changes when the game script changes.
99%
Any-snap probability
QB
Pregame role
Rush yards
carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific
6.22 → 9.67
One-score game · defensive · slow
CIN controls · high scoring · fast
Pass yards
team pass volume changes attempts; conditional passing efficiency remains player-specific
173.3 → 239.3
One-score game · defensive · slow
CIN controls · high scoring · fast
Carries
team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific
1.93 → 2.51
One-score game · defensive · slow
CIN controls · high scoring · fast
Pass attempts
drive pace changes team dropbacks; QB role remains in the guarded marginal
33.5 → 40.1
CIN controls · balanced · neutral pace
JAX controls · balanced · neutral pace
Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.
Public receipt
2025 Projection Report Card
Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data
Pass Attempts
±8.6avg miss · 8 wks
Pass Yards
±82.8avg miss · 8 wks
Rush Yards
±7.2avg miss · 8 wks
This season
2026 Game Log
Performance history