BakerMayfield

6'1"215 lbAge 319 seasonsOklahomaDraft 2018 · R1 P1

Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model

vs Packers · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET

Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring15.1

Pass Attempts32

Completions18.7

Pass Yards194.5

Pass TDs1.2

Interceptions0.6

Carries3

Rush Yards25.6

Rush TDs0.2

Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.

Shared model

Joint roster forecast

Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters

Relational

Offensive snaps

93%

Defensive snaps

Pass attempts27.6P10–P90 15.0–41.0

Completions20.1P10–P90 12.0–29.0

Pass yards208.3P10–P90 113.4–303.1

Pass TDs1.20P10–P90 0.0–3.0

Interceptions0.26P10–P90 0.0–1.0

Carries3.88P10–P90 1.0–8.0

Rush yards26.5P10–P90 2.3–50.6

Rush TDs0.13P10–P90 0.0–1.0

Strongest learned context

David Walker · team Evan McPherson · opp Josiah Trotter · team SirVocea Dennis · team Caden Fordham · team William Wagner · opp Ryan Rehkow · opp Jalen Rivers · opp

Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.

The game around the player

Role across game environments.

How the same player changes when the game script changes.

Open matchup

99%

Any-snap probability

Pregame role

Rush yards

carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific

20.4 → 32.5

GB controls · defensive · slow

One-score game · high scoring · fast

Pass yards

team pass volume changes attempts; conditional passing efficiency remains player-specific

169.0 → 248.7

GB controls · defensive · slow

One-score game · high scoring · fast

Carries

team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific

3.40 → 4.35

GB controls · defensive · slow

One-score game · high scoring · fast

Pass attempts

drive pace changes team dropbacks; QB role remains in the guarded marginal

25.3 → 30.0

TB controls · balanced · neutral pace

GB controls · balanced · neutral pace

Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.

Public receipt

2025 Projection Report Card

Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data

Pass Attempts

±7.5avg miss · 17 wks

Pass Yards

±70avg miss · 17 wks

Rush Yards

±14.4avg miss · 17 wks

This season

2026 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CMP	ATT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD
Week 1	@CIN	L 27–33	23	28	216	0	0	4	31	1
Week 2	CLE	L 19–23	21	34	182	1	1	4	29	0
Week 3	MIN	L 16–23	17	34	217	1	1	2	6	0
3 games			61	96	615	2	2	10	66	1

Performance history

2025 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CMP	ATT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD
Week 1	@ATL	W 23–20	17	32	167	3	0	4	40	0
Week 2	@HOU	W 20–19	25	39	215	2	0	3	33	0
Week 3	NYJ	W 29–27	19	29	233	1	0	3	45	0
Week 4	PHI	L 25–31	22	39	289	2	1	2	13	0
Week 5	@SEA	W 38–35	29	34	379	2	0	4	16	0
Week 6	SF	W 30–19	17	23	256	2	0	2	15	0
Week 7	@DET	L 9–24	28	51	228	1	1	—	—	—
Week 8	@NO	W 23–3	15	24	152	0	0	—	—	—
Week 10	NE	L 23–28	28	43	273	3	0	—	—	—
Week 11	@BUF	L 32–44	16	30	173	1	1	5	39	1
Week 12	@LA	L 7–34	9	19	41	1	2	4	19	0
Week 13	ARI	W 20–17	18	28	194	1	0	3	31	0
Week 14	NO	L 20–24	14	30	122	1	1	6	42	0
Week 15	ATL	L 28–29	19	35	277	2	1	1	1	0
Week 16	@CAR	L 20–23	18	26	145	1	1	3	50	0
Week 17	@MIA	L 17–20	33	44	346	2	2	3	16	0
Week 18	CAR	W 16–14	16	22	203	1	1	4	31	0
17 games			343	548	3693	26	11	47	391	1