DanielCarlson

6'5"222 lbAge 319 seasonsAuburnDraft 2018 · R5 P167

Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model

vs Falcons · Mon, Oct 5 · 8:15 PM ET

Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring7.1

Field Goals1.8

FG Attempts2.2

Extra Points1.7

Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.

Shared model

Joint roster forecast

Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters

Relational

Offensive snaps

Defensive snaps

FG attempts1.72P10–P90 0.0–4.0

Field goals1.48P10–P90 0.0–3.0

Strongest learned context

Jared Goff · opp Spencer Rattler · team Ahmed Hassanein · opp Tyler Shough · team Derrick Moore · opp Jahmyr Gibbs · opp Zach Wilson · team Travis Etienne · team

Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.

The game around the player

Role across game environments.

How the same player changes when the game script changes.

Open matchup

13%

Any-snap probability

Pregame role

The current role has no material stat allocation in this matchup. A zero forecast is still an explicit probabilistic inference, not a missing player.

Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.

This season

2026 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	FGM	FGA	XPM
Week 1	NO	W 31–30	1	2	3
Week 2	NO	L 17–24	3	3	1
Week 3	LV	L 27–35	—	—	3
3 games			4	5	7

Performance history

2025 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	FGM	FGA	XPM
Week 1	@NE	W 20–13	2	3	2
Week 2	LAC	L 9–20	3	3	—
Week 3	LV	W 41–24	1	1	1
Week 4	@LV	W 25–24	1	2	3
Week 5	LV	W 40–6	2	3	—
Week 6	@LV	L 10–20	2	2	2
Week 9	@LV	W 30–29	1	1	2
Week 10	@DEN	L 7–10	—	1	1
Week 11	@LV	W 33–16	3	3	1
Week 12	@LV	W 24–10	1	2	1
Week 13	@LAC	L 14–31	—	—	2
Week 14	@LV	W 24–17	1	1	2
Week 16	@HOU	L 21–23	—	—	3
Week 17	@LV	W 34–10	1	1	1
Week 18	@LV	L 12–14	4	4	—
17 games			22	27	21