JaredGoff

6'4"217 lbAge 3111 seasonsCaliforniaDraft 2016 · R1 P1

Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model

@ Panthers · Sun, Oct 4 · 8:20 PM ET

Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring18.3

Pass Attempts34.8

Completions22.8

Pass Yards258.1

Pass TDs2.1

Interceptions0.4

Carries1

Rush Yards3.7

Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.

Shared model

Joint roster forecast

Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters

Relational

Offensive snaps

96%

Defensive snaps

Pass attempts36.2P10–P90 20.0–54.0

Completions23.4P10–P90 14.0–34.0

Pass yards231.5P10–P90 136.6–326.3

Pass TDs1.35P10–P90 0.0–3.0

Interceptions0.27P10–P90 0.0–1.0

Carries1.60P10–P90 0.0–4.0

Rush yards2.81P10–P90 0.0–26.9

Strongest learned context

Ryan Wright · opp Daniel Carlson · opp Malcolm Rodriguez · team Jack Campbell · team D.J. Wonnum · team Jake Bates · team Will Sherman · opp Travis Etienne · opp

Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.

The game around the player

Role across game environments.

How the same player changes when the game script changes.

Open matchup

99%

Any-snap probability

Pregame role

Pass yards

team pass volume changes attempts; conditional passing efficiency remains player-specific

194.1 → 273.6

DET controls · defensive · slow

One-score game · high scoring · fast

Rush yards

carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific

2.37 → 3.27

CAR controls · balanced · neutral pace

DET controls · balanced · neutral pace

Pass attempts

drive pace changes team dropbacks; QB role remains in the guarded marginal

32.0 → 40.6

DET controls · defensive · slow

One-score game · high scoring · fast

Carries

team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific

1.44 → 1.77

CAR controls · balanced · neutral pace

DET controls · balanced · neutral pace

Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.

Public receipt

2025 Projection Report Card

Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data

Pass Attempts

±6.5avg miss · 17 wks

Pass Yards

±47.3avg miss · 17 wks

Rush Yards

±4.8avg miss · 17 wks

This season

2026 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CMP	ATT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	CAR	RUSH YDS
Week 1	NO	W 31–30	26	39	206	2	2	2
Week 2	@BUF	L 31–41	26	38	327	4	3	7
Week 3	NYJ	W 31–24	25	32	269	2	2	8
3 games			77	109	802	8	7	17

Performance history

2025 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CMP	ATT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD
Week 1	@GB	L 13–27	31	39	225	1	1	—	—	—
Week 2	CHI	W 52–21	23	28	334	5	0	1	6	0
Week 3	@BAL	W 38–30	20	28	202	1	0	3	7	0
Week 4	CLE	W 34–10	16	27	168	2	1	—	—	—
Week 5	@CIN	W 37–24	19	23	258	3	0	—	—	—
Week 6	@KC	L 17–30	23	29	203	2	0	1	7	0
Week 7	TB	W 24–9	20	29	241	1	1	2	7	0
Week 9	MIN	L 24–27	25	37	284	2	0	—	—	—
Week 10	@WAS	W 44–22	25	33	320	3	0	—	—	—
Week 11	@PHI	L 9–16	14	37	255	1	1	—	—	—
Week 12	NYG	W 34–27	28	40	279	2	1	—	—	—
Week 13	GB	L 24–31	20	26	256	2	0	1	24	0
Week 14	DAL	W 44–30	25	34	309	1	0	—	—	—
Week 15	@LA	L 34–41	25	41	338	3	0	—	—	—
Week 16	PIT	L 24–29	34	54	364	3	0	—	—	—
Week 17	@MIN	L 10–23	18	29	197	1	2	3	2	0
Week 18	@CHI	W 19–16	27	42	331	1	1	—	—	—
17 games			393	576	4564	34	8	11	53	0