Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model
vs Falcons · Mon, Oct 5 · 8:15 PM ET
Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring16.2
Pass Attempts32.6
Completions21.8
Pass Yards234.5
Pass TDs1.1
Interceptions0.6
Carries4
Rush Yards18.3
Rush TDs0.3
Solo Tackles0.1
Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.
Shared model
Joint roster forecast
Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters
Offensive snaps
96%
Defensive snaps
1%
Pass attempts44.1P10–P90 25.0–65.0
Completions24.7P10–P90 15.0–35.0
Pass yards274.0P10–P90 179.1–368.8
Pass TDs2.03P10–P90 0.0–4.0
Interceptions0.85P10–P90 0.0–2.0
Carries5.39P10–P90 1.0–11.0
Rush yards18.5P10–P90 0.0–42.7
Rush TDs0.17P10–P90 0.0–1.0
Strongest learned context
Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.
The game around the player
Role across game environments.
How the same player changes when the game script changes.
99%
Any-snap probability
QB
Pregame role
Rush yards
carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific
14.5 → 22.7
One-score game · defensive · slow
NO controls · high scoring · fast
Pass yards
team pass volume changes attempts; conditional passing efficiency remains player-specific
229.3 → 318.1
One-score game · defensive · slow
NO controls · high scoring · fast
Carries
team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific
4.69 → 6.12
One-score game · defensive · slow
NO controls · high scoring · fast
Pass attempts
drive pace changes team dropbacks; QB role remains in the guarded marginal
40.2 → 48.0
NO controls · balanced · neutral pace
ATL controls · balanced · neutral pace
Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.
Public receipt
2025 Projection Report Card
Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data
Pass Attempts
±12.4avg miss · 10 wks
Pass Yards
±108.1avg miss · 10 wks
Rush Yards
±15.6avg miss · 10 wks
This season
2026 Game Log
Performance history