Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model
vs Jaguars · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET
Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring4.9
Carries5.2
Rush Yards19.5
Rush TDs0.1
Receptions1.4
Receiving Yards9.6
Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.
Shared model
Joint roster forecast
Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters
Offensive snaps
18%
Defensive snaps
1%
Carries4.79P10–P90 1.0–9.0
Rush yards18.8P10–P90 0.0–53.0
Rush TDs0.02P10–P90 0.0–0.0
Targets1.59P10–P90 0.0–4.0
Receptions1.45P10–P90 0.0–3.0
Receiving yards8.22P10–P90 0.0–25.2
Strongest learned context
Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.
The game around the player
Role across game environments.
How the same player changes when the game script changes.
88%
Any-snap probability
RB
Pregame role
Rush yards
carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific
14.8 → 23.1
One-score game · defensive · slow
CIN controls · high scoring · fast
Receiving yards
target opportunity moves with pass volume; depth, catchability and YAC remain player-specific
6.82 → 9.59
One-score game · defensive · slow
CIN controls · high scoring · fast
Carries
team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific
4.17 → 5.44
One-score game · defensive · slow
CIN controls · high scoring · fast
Receptions
route and target opportunity move with pass volume; catch conversion remains player-specific
1.30 → 1.60
CIN controls · balanced · neutral pace
JAX controls · balanced · neutral pace
Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.
Public receipt
2025 Projection Report Card
Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data
Rush Yards
±19.9avg miss · 14 wks
Receptions
±0.9avg miss · 14 wks
Receiving Yards
±8.3avg miss · 14 wks
This season
2026 Game Log
Performance history