RyanFitzgerald

5'11"201 lbAge 262 seasonsFlorida StateUndrafted

Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model

vs Lions · Sun, Oct 4 · 8:20 PM ET

Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring8.0

Field Goals1.8

FG Attempts2.1

Extra Points2.6

Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.

Shared model

Joint roster forecast

Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters

Relational

Offensive snaps

Defensive snaps

FG attempts1.72P10–P90 0.0–4.0

Field goals1.55P10–P90 0.0–3.0

Strongest learned context

Caleb Williams · opp Roschon Johnson · opp Tyson Bagent · opp Jamree Kromah · opp Cam Jackson · team Jonathon Brooks · team Jackson Kuwatch · team Haynes King · team

Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.

The game around the player

Role across game environments.

How the same player changes when the game script changes.

Open matchup

10%

Any-snap probability

Pregame role

The current role has no material stat allocation in this matchup. A zero forecast is still an explicit probabilistic inference, not a missing player.

Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.

This season

2026 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	FGM	FGA	XPM
Week 1	@CAR	W 59–37	1	1	4
Week 2	CAR	L 3–34	2	2	4
Week 3	@CLE	L 18–21	4	4	—
3 games			7	7	8

Performance history

2025 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	FGM	FGA	XPM
Week 1	CAR	W 26–10	1	1	1
Week 2	@ARI	L 22–27	1	1	1
Week 3	@CAR	L 0–30	3	3	3
Week 4	@NE	L 13–42	—	1	1
Week 5	@CAR	L 24–27	2	2	3
Week 6	@CAR	L 27–30	3	3	3
Week 7	CAR	L 6–13	2	2	1
Week 8	BUF	L 9–40	1	2	—
Week 9	@GB	W 16–13	1	1	1
Week 10	NO	L 7–17	—	1	1
Week 11	CAR	L 27–30	3	3	1
Week 12	CAR	W 20–9	1	2	—
Week 13	@CAR	L 28–31	1	1	4
Week 15	CAR	W 20–17	1	1	2
Week 16	TB	W 23–20	3	3	2
Week 17	SEA	L 10–27	1	1	1
Week 18	CAR	W 16–14	—	1	2
Week 19	LA	L 31–34	1	1	4
17 games			25	30	31