TylerWarren

6'6"256 lbAge 242 seasonsPenn StateDraft 2025 · R1 P14

Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model

@ Commanders · Sun, Oct 4 · 9:30 AM ET

Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring13.0

Pass Attempts0

Carries0.4

Rush Yards0.8

Rush TDs0.1

Receptions5.1

Receiving Yards48.1

Receiving TDs0.4

Solo Tackles0

Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.

Shared model

Joint roster forecast

Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters

Relational

Offensive snaps

62%

Defensive snaps

Carries0.30P10–P90 0.0–1.0

Rush yards0.75P10–P90 0.0–4.3

Rush TDs0.06P10–P90 0.0–0.0

Targets5.82P10–P90 2.0–10.0

Receptions4.09P10–P90 1.0–7.0

Receiving yards31.5P10–P90 0.7–62.3

Receiving TDs0.11P10–P90 0.0–1.0

Strongest learned context

Tyler Huntley · opp Andrew Vorhees · opp Roger Rosengarten · opp Lamar Jackson · opp Arden Key · team Luke Rhodes · team Bryce Boettcher · team Daniel Jones · team

Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.

The game around the player

Role across game environments.

How the same player changes when the game script changes.

Open matchup

98%

Any-snap probability

RECEIVER

Pregame role

Receiving yards

target opportunity moves with pass volume; depth, catchability and YAC remain player-specific

26.3 → 37.2

IND controls · defensive · slow

One-score game · high scoring · fast

Rush yards

carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific

0.63 → 0.89

WAS controls · balanced · neutral pace

IND controls · balanced · neutral pace

Targets

team pass volume changes route opportunity; teammate target competition remains player-specific

5.08 → 6.57

IND controls · defensive · slow

One-score game · high scoring · fast

Receptions

route and target opportunity move with pass volume; catch conversion remains player-specific

3.57 → 4.62

IND controls · defensive · slow

One-score game · high scoring · fast

Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.

Public receipt

2025 Projection Report Card

Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data

Rush Yards

±1.5avg miss · 8 wks

Receptions

±1.3avg miss · 16 wks

Receiving Yards

±22.4avg miss · 16 wks

This season

2026 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	TGT	REC	REC YDS	REC TD
Week 1	BAL	L 23–41	—	—	—	5	3	13	1
Week 2	@KC	L 30–33	1	3	0	7	6	21	1
Week 3	HOU	W 19–17	1	2	0	10	9	55	0
3 games			2	5	0	22	18	89	2

Performance history

2025 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	TGT	REC	REC YDS	REC TD
Week 1	MIA	W 33–8	1	3	0	9	7	76	0
Week 2	DEN	W 29–28	1	0	0	7	4	79	0
Week 3	@TEN	W 41–20	—	—	—	5	3	38	0
Week 4	@LA	L 20–27	2	3	1	6	5	70	0
Week 5	LV	W 40–6	—	—	—	5	4	44	1
Week 6	ARI	W 31–27	—	—	—	9	6	63	1
Week 7	@LAC	W 38–24	—	—	—	5	4	69	1
Week 8	TEN	W 38–14	—	—	—	5	4	53	0
Week 9	@PIT	L 20–27	—	—	—	7	5	26	0
Week 10	ATL	W 31–25	—	—	—	10	8	99	0
Week 12	@KC	L 20–23	—	—	—	7	5	45	0
Week 13	HOU	L 16–20	1	0	0	4	3	22	1
Week 14	@JAX	L 19–36	1	2	0	7	2	15	0
Week 15	@SEA	L 16–18	—	—	—	6	3	19	0
Week 16	SF	L 27–48	—	—	—	9	3	30	0
Week 17	JAX	L 17–23	—	—	—	5	5	43	0
Week 18	@HOU	L 30–38	—	—	—	8	5	26	0
17 games			6	8	1	114	76	817	4