Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model
@ Commanders · Sun, Oct 4 · 9:30 AM ET
Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring19.3
Pass Attempts30
Completions23.2
Pass Yards262.7
Pass TDs1.6
Interceptions0.7
Carries2.7
Rush Yards13.5
Rush TDs0.4
Solo Tackles0.1
Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.
Shared model
Joint roster forecast
Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters
Offensive snaps
92%
Defensive snaps
2%
Pass attempts24.5P10–P90 13.0–37.0
Completions15.1P10–P90 8.0–22.0
Pass yards139.2P10–P90 44.3–234.0
Pass TDs1.01P10–P90 0.0–2.0
Interceptions0.06P10–P90 0.0–0.0
Carries2.66P10–P90 0.0–6.0
Rush yards10.4P10–P90 0.0–34.5
Rush TDs0.13P10–P90 0.0–1.0
Strongest learned context
Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.
The game around the player
Role across game environments.
How the same player changes when the game script changes.
99%
Any-snap probability
QB
Pregame role
Pass yards
team pass volume changes attempts; conditional passing efficiency remains player-specific
116.1 → 164.5
IND controls · defensive · slow
One-score game · high scoring · fast
Rush yards
carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific
8.63 → 12.2
WAS controls · balanced · neutral pace
IND controls · balanced · neutral pace
Pass attempts
drive pace changes team dropbacks; QB role remains in the guarded marginal
21.4 → 27.7
IND controls · defensive · slow
One-score game · high scoring · fast
Carries
team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific
2.38 → 2.94
WAS controls · balanced · neutral pace
IND controls · balanced · neutral pace
Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.
Public receipt
2025 Projection Report Card
Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data
Pass Attempts
±6.5avg miss · 13 wks
Pass Yards
±63.3avg miss · 13 wks
Rush Yards
±14.1avg miss · 13 wks
This season
2026 Game Log
Performance history