AJBarner

6'6"251 lbAge 243 seasonsMichiganDraft 2024 · R4 P121

Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model

vs Chargers · Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET

Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring6.6

Carries0.6

Rush Yards0.7

Rush TDs0.1

Receptions2.4

Receiving Yards23.3

Receiving TDs0.2

Assist Tackles0

Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.

Shared model

Joint roster forecast

Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters

Relational

Offensive snaps

61%

Defensive snaps

Carries0.39P10–P90 0.0–1.0

Rush yards0.42P10–P90 0.0–3.9

Targets3.49P10–P90 1.0–6.0

Receptions2.61P10–P90 1.0–5.0

Receiving yards29.8P10–P90 0.0–60.6

Receiving TDs0.32P10–P90 0.0–1.0

Strongest learned context

Andy Borregales · opp Brandon Pili · team Michael Dickson · team Ernest Jones · team Alijah Vera-Tucker · opp Rhamondre Stevenson · opp Jared Wilson · opp Jarran Reed · team

Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.

The game around the player

Role across game environments.

How the same player changes when the game script changes.

Open matchup

98%

Any-snap probability

RECEIVER

Pregame role

Rush yards

carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific

0.33 → 0.51

One-score game · defensive · slow

SEA controls · high scoring · fast

Receiving yards

target opportunity moves with pass volume; depth, catchability and YAC remain player-specific

24.9 → 34.9

One-score game · defensive · slow

SEA controls · high scoring · fast

Carries

team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific

0.34 → 0.43

One-score game · defensive · slow

SEA controls · high scoring · fast

Targets

team pass volume changes route opportunity; teammate target competition remains player-specific

3.19 → 3.81

SEA controls · balanced · neutral pace

One-score game · balanced · neutral pace

Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.

Public receipt

2025 Projection Report Card

Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data

Rush Yards

±1.4avg miss · 8 wks

Receptions

±1.5avg miss · 17 wks

Receiving Yards

±17.6avg miss · 17 wks

This season

2026 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	TGT	REC	REC YDS
Week 1	NE	W 13–10	2	2	13
Week 2	@ARI	W 31–7	1	1	8
Week 3	@WAS	L 31–33	9	5	69
3 games			12	8	90

Performance history

2025 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	TGT	REC	REC YDS	REC TD
Week 1	SF	L 13–17	1	2	0	2	1	0	0
Week 2	@PIT	W 31–17	1	2	0	3	2	26	1
Week 3	NO	W 44–13	—	—	—	1	1	23	0
Week 4	@ARI	W 23–20	—	—	—	3	3	32	1
Week 5	TB	L 35–38	—	—	—	7	7	53	2
Week 6	@JAX	W 20–12	—	—	—	3	3	71	0
Week 7	HOU	W 27–19	1	2	0	3	1	7	0
Week 9	@WAS	W 38–14	1	1	1	4	3	24	0
Week 10	ARI	W 44–22	2	3	0	—	—	—	—
Week 11	@LA	L 19–21	2	1	0	11	10	70	0
Week 12	@TEN	W 30–24	—	—	—	4	2	18	0
Week 13	MIN	W 26–0	1	2	0	5	4	35	0
Week 14	@ATL	W 37–9	—	—	—	4	3	27	0
Week 15	IND	W 18–16	—	—	—	6	3	27	0
Week 16	LA	W 38–37	1	1	0	6	4	49	1
Week 17	@CAR	W 27–10	—	—	—	3	3	43	1
Week 18	@SF	W 13–3	—	—	—	3	2	14	0
Week 20	SF	W 41–6	1	2	0	—	—	—	—
Week 21	LA	W 31–27	—	—	—	3	2	13	0
Week 22	@NE	W 29–13	—	—	—	4	4	54	1
17 games			11	16	1	75	58	586	7