Denver BroncosCB

PatSurtain II

6'2"202 lbAge 266 seasonsAlabamaDraft 2021 · R1 P9
Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model
@ 49ers · Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET
Solo Tackles3.1
Assist Tackles1.3

Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.

Shared model
Joint roster forecast
Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters
Relational
Offensive snaps
1%
Defensive snaps
97%
Solo tackles2.64P10–P90 1.0–5.0
Assist tackles1.70P10–P90 0.0–4.0
Sacks0.05P10–P90 0.0–0.0

Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.

The game around the player
Role across game environments.
How the same player changes when the game script changes.
99%
Any-snap probability
DB
Pregame role
Assisted tackles
opponent plays change tackle chances; defensive role and tackle-credit rate remain player-specific
1.53 → 1.87
One-score game · defensive · slow
SF controls · high scoring · fast
Solo tackles
opponent plays change tackle chances; defensive role and tackle-credit rate remain player-specific
2.37 → 2.90
One-score game · defensive · slow
SF controls · high scoring · fast
Sacks
opponent dropbacks change rush chances; participation, pressure allocation and finish remain player-specific
0.05 → 0.06
SF controls · balanced · neutral pace
DEN controls · balanced · neutral pace

Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.

This season

2026 Game Log

WeekOppResultSOLOAST
Week 1@KCL 10–3112
Week 2JAXW 20–1333
Week 3LAW 30–2662
3 games107
Performance history

2025 Game Log

WeekOppResultSOLOAST
Week 2@INDL 28–2992
Week 3@LACL 20–232—
Week 4CINW 28–3—2
Week 5@PHIW 21–1751
Week 6@NYJW 13–111—
Week 8DALW 44–2441
Week 13@WASW 27–264—
Week 14@LVW 24–1712
Week 15GBW 34–264—
Week 16JAXL 20–341—
Week 17@KCW 20–1341
Week 18LACW 19–321
Week 20BUFW 33–3021
Week 21NEL 7–1023
14 games4114