BoNix

6'2"217 lbAge 263 seasonsOregonDraft 2024 · R1 P12

Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model

@ 49ers · Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET

Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring17.4

Pass Attempts34.9

Completions24

Pass Yards245.3

Pass TDs1.5

Interceptions0.7

Carries3.5

Rush Yards17.9

Rush TDs0.2

Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.

Shared model

Joint roster forecast

Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters

Relational

Offensive snaps

94%

Defensive snaps

Pass attempts30.5P10–P90 17.0–46.0

Completions21.1P10–P90 12.0–31.0

Pass yards185.8P10–P90 91.0–280.7

Pass TDs0.92P10–P90 0.0–2.0

Interceptions0.35P10–P90 0.0–1.0

Carries4.84P10–P90 1.0–10.0

Rush yards16.3P10–P90 0.0–40.4

Strongest learned context

Jordan Jackson · team Harrison Butker · opp Malcolm Roach · team Que Robinson · team Dondrea Tillman · team Josh Simmons · opp Brashard Smith · opp Felix Anudike-Uzomah · opp

Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.

The game around the player

Role across game environments.

How the same player changes when the game script changes.

Open matchup

99%

Any-snap probability

Pregame role

Pass yards

team pass volume changes attempts; conditional passing efficiency remains player-specific

153.4 → 220.7

One-score game · defensive · slow

SF controls · high scoring · fast

Rush yards

carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific

13.3 → 19.2

SF controls · balanced · neutral pace

DEN controls · balanced · neutral pace

Pass attempts

drive pace changes team dropbacks; QB role remains in the guarded marginal

26.7 → 34.2

One-score game · defensive · slow

SF controls · high scoring · fast

Carries

team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific

4.32 → 5.35

SF controls · balanced · neutral pace

DEN controls · balanced · neutral pace

Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.

Public receipt

2025 Projection Report Card

Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data

Pass Attempts

±6.8avg miss · 17 wks

Pass Yards

±53avg miss · 17 wks

Rush Yards

±14.3avg miss · 17 wks

This season

2026 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CMP	ATT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD
Week 1	@KC	L 10–31	17	28	131	1	1	2	3	0
Week 2	JAX	W 20–13	22	31	288	1	1	2	9	0
Week 3	LA	W 30–26	17	36	186	2	1	4	7	1
3 games			56	95	605	4	3	8	19	1

Performance history

2025 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CMP	ATT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD
Week 1	TEN	W 20–12	25	40	176	1	2	6	20	0
Week 2	@IND	L 28–29	22	30	206	3	1	3	20	0
Week 3	@LAC	L 20–23	14	25	153	1	0	7	34	0
Week 4	CIN	W 28–3	29	42	326	2	1	3	10	1
Week 5	@PHI	W 21–17	24	40	242	1	0	3	22	0
Week 6	@NYJ	W 13–11	19	30	174	1	0	3	26	0
Week 7	NYG	W 33–32	27	51	279	2	0	5	48	2
Week 8	DAL	W 44–24	19	30	247	4	1	—	—	—
Week 9	@HOU	W 18–15	18	38	173	2	1	3	36	0
Week 10	LV	W 10–7	16	28	150	1	2	3	0	0
Week 11	KC	W 22–19	24	37	295	0	0	2	9	0
Week 13	@WAS	W 27–26	29	45	321	1	1	2	16	0
Week 14	@LV	W 24–17	31	38	212	0	0	3	15	1
Week 15	GB	W 34–26	23	34	302	4	0	5	12	0
Week 16	JAX	L 20–34	28	47	352	1	1	4	11	0
Week 17	@KC	W 20–13	26	38	182	1	1	8	43	1
Week 18	LAC	W 19–3	14	23	141	0	0	6	51	0
Week 20	BUF	W 33–30	26	46	279	3	1	10	33	0
17 games			414	662	4210	28	12	76	406	5