JustinHerbert

6'6"236 lbAge 287 seasonsOregonDraft 2020 · R1 P6

Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model

@ Seahawks · Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET

Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring15.3

Pass Attempts31

Completions19

Pass Yards212.8

Pass TDs1.4

Interceptions0.9

Carries4.5

Rush Yards24.3

Rush TDs0.1

Solo Tackles0.1

Assist Tackles0.1

Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.

Shared model

Joint roster forecast

Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters

Relational

Offensive snaps

98%

Defensive snaps

Pass attempts32.0P10–P90 18.0–48.0

Completions17.1P10–P90 10.0–25.0

Pass yards185.7P10–P90 90.8–280.5

Pass TDs0.84P10–P90 0.0–2.0

Interceptions0.67P10–P90 0.0–2.0

Carries4.70P10–P90 1.0–9.0

Rush yards22.4P10–P90 0.0–46.5

Rush TDs0.03P10–P90 0.0–0.0

Strongest learned context

Blake Gillikin · opp Chad Ryland · opp Bud Dupree · team Casey Kreiter · opp Isaac Seumalo · opp Cameron Dicker · team Marlowe Wax · team Akheem Mesidor · team

Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.

The game around the player

Role across game environments.

How the same player changes when the game script changes.

Open matchup

99%

Any-snap probability

Pregame role

Pass yards

team pass volume changes attempts; conditional passing efficiency remains player-specific

153.0 → 223.4

One-score game · defensive · slow

SEA controls · high scoring · fast

Rush yards

carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific

18.2 → 26.6

SEA controls · balanced · neutral pace

One-score game · balanced · neutral pace

Pass attempts

drive pace changes team dropbacks; QB role remains in the guarded marginal

28.3 → 35.7

One-score game · defensive · slow

SEA controls · high scoring · fast

Carries

team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific

4.20 → 5.21

SEA controls · balanced · neutral pace

One-score game · balanced · neutral pace

Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.

Public receipt

2025 Projection Report Card

Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data

Pass Attempts

±7.4avg miss · 16 wks

Pass Yards

±65.7avg miss · 16 wks

Rush Yards

±19avg miss · 16 wks

This season

2026 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CMP	ATT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	CAR	RUSH YDS
Week 1	ARI	L 14–26	17	27	209	1	1	5	29
Week 2	LV	L 14–26	15	27	192	1	2	3	2
Week 3	@BUF	L 16–24	20	34	226	1	1	4	17
3 games			52	88	627	3	4	12	48

Performance history

2025 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CMP	ATT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD
Week 1	KC	W 27–21	25	34	318	3	0	4	36	0
Week 2	@LV	W 20–9	19	27	242	2	0	7	33	0
Week 3	DEN	W 23–20	28	47	300	1	1	2	6	0
Week 4	@NYG	L 18–21	23	41	203	1	2	2	24	0
Week 5	WAS	L 10–27	22	29	166	1	1	3	61	0
Week 6	@MIA	W 29–27	29	38	264	2	0	1	2	0
Week 7	IND	L 24–38	37	55	420	3	2	6	31	0
Week 8	MIN	W 37–10	18	25	227	3	1	7	62	0
Week 9	@TEN	W 27–20	19	29	250	2	1	8	58	1
Week 10	PIT	W 25–10	20	33	220	1	0	4	20	0
Week 11	@JAX	L 6–35	10	18	81	0	1	3	21	0
Week 13	LV	W 31–14	15	20	151	2	1	3	8	0
Week 14	PHI	W 22–19	12	26	139	1	1	10	66	0
Week 15	@KC	W 16–13	19	29	210	1	1	1	1	0
Week 16	@DAL	W 34–17	23	29	300	2	0	7	44	1
Week 17	HOU	L 16–20	21	32	236	1	1	6	37	0
Week 19	@NE	L 3–16	19	31	159	0	0	10	57	0
16 games			359	543	3886	26	13	84	567	2