DavidMontgomery

5'11"230 lbAge 298 seasonsIowa StateDraft 2019 · R3 P73

Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model

vs Cowboys · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET

Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring12.2

Pass Attempts0.1

Completions0.1

Pass Yards0.2

Pass TDs0.1

Carries10.1

Rush Yards42.5

Rush TDs0.6

Receptions1.9

Receiving Yards14.2

Receiving TDs0.1

Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.

Shared model

Joint roster forecast

Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters

Relational

Offensive snaps

35%

Defensive snaps

Carries9.26P10–P90 4.0–16.0

Rush yards33.0P10–P90 0.0–67.1

Rush TDs0.24P10–P90 0.0–1.0

Targets1.57P10–P90 0.0–4.0

Receptions1.45P10–P90 0.0–3.0

Receiving yards9.31P10–P90 0.0–26.3

Receiving TDs0.05P10–P90 0.0–0.0

Strongest learned context

Josh Allen · opp Jadeveon Clowney · team Danielle Hunter · team Mario Edwards Jr. · team Tylan Grable · opp Tommy Togiai · team Michael Hoecht · opp Tommy Doman · opp

Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.

The game around the player

Role across game environments.

How the same player changes when the game script changes.

Open matchup

97%

Any-snap probability

Pregame role

Rush yards

carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific

25.7 → 40.3

One-score game · defensive · slow

HOU controls · high scoring · fast

Receiving yards

target opportunity moves with pass volume; depth, catchability and YAC remain player-specific

7.69 → 11.0

One-score game · defensive · slow

HOU controls · high scoring · fast

Carries

team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific

8.04 → 10.5

One-score game · defensive · slow

HOU controls · high scoring · fast

Receptions

route and target opportunity move with pass volume; catch conversion remains player-specific

1.30 → 1.59

HOU controls · balanced · neutral pace

DAL controls · balanced · neutral pace

Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.

Public receipt

2025 Projection Report Card

Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data

Rush Yards

±26.7avg miss · 17 wks

Receptions

±1.2avg miss · 17 wks

Receiving Yards

±10.7avg miss · 17 wks

This season

2026 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	TGT	REC	REC YDS	REC TD
Week 1	BUF	L 31–36	20	60	2	3	3	19	1
Week 2	CIN	L 6–20	6	10	0	2	2	14	0
Week 3	@IND	L 17–19	11	33	0	2	2	15	0
3 games			37	103	2	7	7	48	1

Performance history

2025 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CMP	ATT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	TGT	REC	REC YDS	REC TD
Week 1	@GB	L 13–27	—	—	—	—	—	11	25	0	4	4	18	0
Week 2	CHI	W 52–21	—	—	—	—	—	11	57	1	1	1	4	0
Week 3	@BAL	W 38–30	—	—	—	—	—	12	151	2	1	1	13	0
Week 4	CLE	W 34–10	—	—	—	—	—	9	12	0	1	0	0	0
Week 5	@CIN	W 37–24	1	1	3	1	0	18	65	1	1	1	6	0
Week 6	@KC	L 17–30	—	—	—	—	—	4	24	0	2	2	37	0
Week 7	TB	W 24–9	—	—	—	—	—	13	21	0	3	2	18	0
Week 9	MIN	L 24–27	—	—	—	—	—	11	40	1	4	2	10	0
Week 10	@WAS	W 44–22	—	—	—	—	—	16	71	0	1	1	0	0
Week 11	@PHI	L 9–16	—	—	—	—	—	6	27	0	1	1	10	0
Week 12	NYG	W 34–27	—	—	—	—	—	5	18	0	3	3	19	0
Week 13	GB	L 24–31	0	1	0	0	0	8	32	1	2	2	16	0
Week 14	DAL	W 44–30	—	—	—	—	—	6	60	1	1	1	13	0
Week 15	@LA	L 34–41	—	—	—	—	—	7	32	1	1	0	0	0
Week 16	PIT	L 24–29	—	—	—	—	—	4	14	0	—	—	—	—
Week 17	@MIN	L 10–23	—	—	—	—	—	10	25	0	2	2	15	0
Week 18	@CHI	W 19–16	0	0	0	0	0	8	42	0	1	1	13	0
17 games			1	2	3	1	0	159	716	8	29	24	192	0