JoshAllen

6'5"237 lbAge 309 seasonsWyomingDraft 2018 · R1 P7

Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model

vs Patriots · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET

Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring22.2

Pass Attempts28

Completions17.4

Pass Yards210.8

Pass TDs1.5

Interceptions0.5

Carries6

Rush Yards33.2

Rush TDs0.9

Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.

Shared model

Joint roster forecast

Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters

Relational

Offensive snaps

97%

Defensive snaps

Pass attempts22.3P10–P90 12.0–34.0

Completions17.6P10–P90 10.0–26.0

Pass yards205.1P10–P90 110.2–299.9

Pass TDs1.11P10–P90 0.0–3.0

Carries7.53P10–P90 2.0–15.0

Rush yards36.1P10–P90 12.0–60.2

Rush TDs0.73P10–P90 0.0–2.0

Strongest learned context

Ka'imi Fairbairn · opp Kai Kroeger · opp Terrel Bernard · team Greg Gaines · team Braden Smith · opp Michael Hoecht · team Ed Oliver · team Aireontae Ersery · opp

Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.

The game around the player

Role across game environments.

How the same player changes when the game script changes.

Open matchup

99%

Any-snap probability

Pregame role

Rush yards

carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific

28.6 → 44.5

One-score game · defensive · slow

BUF controls · high scoring · fast

Pass yards

team pass volume changes attempts; conditional passing efficiency remains player-specific

174.7 → 236.4

One-score game · defensive · slow

BUF controls · high scoring · fast

Carries

team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific

6.57 → 8.61

One-score game · defensive · slow

BUF controls · high scoring · fast

Pass attempts

drive pace changes team dropbacks; QB role remains in the guarded marginal

20.4 → 24.7

BUF controls · balanced · neutral pace

One-score game · balanced · neutral pace

Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.

Public receipt

2025 Projection Report Card

Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data

Pass Attempts

±6.4avg miss · 16 wks

Pass Yards

±60.3avg miss · 16 wks

Rush Yards

±14.2avg miss · 16 wks

This season

2026 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CMP	ATT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD
Week 1	@HOU	W 36–31	20	30	334	2	0	5	24	2
Week 2	DET	W 41–31	20	31	248	3	0	11	72	2
Week 3	LAC	W 24–16	16	26	204	0	2	7	23	2
3 games			56	87	786	5	2	23	119	6

Performance history

2025 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CMP	ATT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD
Week 1	BAL	W 41–40	33	48	394	2	0	11	35	2
Week 2	@NYJ	W 30–10	14	25	148	0	0	5	60	0
Week 3	MIA	W 31–21	22	28	213	3	0	4	25	0
Week 4	NO	W 31–19	16	22	209	2	1	4	48	1
Week 5	NE	L 20–23	22	31	253	2	1	9	53	0
Week 6	@ATL	L 14–24	15	26	180	2	2	6	42	0
Week 8	@CAR	W 40–9	12	19	163	1	0	3	7	2
Week 9	KC	W 28–21	23	26	273	1	0	5	20	2
Week 10	@MIA	L 13–30	28	41	306	2	1	4	31	0
Week 11	TB	W 44–32	19	31	317	3	2	6	40	3
Week 12	@HOU	L 19–23	24	34	253	0	2	4	21	0
Week 13	@PIT	W 26–7	15	23	123	1	1	8	38	1
Week 14	CIN	W 39–34	22	29	251	3	0	6	81	1
Week 15	@NE	W 35–31	19	28	193	3	0	8	51	0
Week 16	@CLE	W 23–20	12	19	130	0	0	5	19	0
Week 17	PHI	L 12–13	23	36	262	0	0	6	28	2
Week 19	@JAX	W 27–24	28	35	273	1	0	9	35	2
Week 20	@DEN	L 30–33	25	39	283	3	2	12	66	0
17 games			372	540	4224	29	12	115	700	16