SamDarnold

6'3"225 lbAge 299 seasonsUSCDraft 2018 · R1 P3

Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model

vs Chargers · Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET

Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring11.0

Pass Attempts25.1

Completions14.9

Pass Yards187

Pass TDs1.1

Interceptions0.7

Carries1.2

Rush Yards4.9

Solo Tackles0.1

Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.

Shared model

Joint roster forecast

Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters

Relational

Offensive snaps

91%

Defensive snaps

Pass attempts30.1P10–P90 17.0–45.0

Completions17.5P10–P90 10.0–26.0

Pass yards193.0P10–P90 98.2–287.9

Pass TDs1.41P10–P90 0.0–3.0

Interceptions0.55P10–P90 0.0–2.0

Carries2.53P10–P90 0.0–5.0

Rush yards5.18P10–P90 0.0–29.3

Strongest learned context

Andy Borregales · opp Brandon Pili · team Uchenna Nwosu · team Rhamondre Stevenson · opp Derick Hall · team Julian Ashby · opp Connor O'Toole · team Corey Kiner · opp

Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.

The game around the player

Role across game environments.

How the same player changes when the game script changes.

Open matchup

99%

Any-snap probability

Pregame role

Rush yards

carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific

4.11 → 6.27

One-score game · defensive · slow

SEA controls · high scoring · fast

Pass yards

team pass volume changes attempts; conditional passing efficiency remains player-specific

161.4 → 225.9

One-score game · defensive · slow

SEA controls · high scoring · fast

Carries

team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific

2.22 → 2.85

One-score game · defensive · slow

SEA controls · high scoring · fast

Pass attempts

drive pace changes team dropbacks; QB role remains in the guarded marginal

27.5 → 32.8

SEA controls · balanced · neutral pace

One-score game · balanced · neutral pace

Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.

Public receipt

2025 Projection Report Card

Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data

Pass Attempts

±6.1avg miss · 17 wks

Pass Yards

±46.5avg miss · 17 wks

Rush Yards

±7.7avg miss · 17 wks

This season

2026 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CMP	ATT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT
Week 1	NE	W 13–10	1	2	13	0	0
Week 3	@WAS	L 31–33	31	45	379	4	2
2 games			32	47	392	4	2

Performance history

2025 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CMP	ATT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	SOLO	AST
Week 1	SF	L 13–17	16	22	150	0	0	2	14	0	—	—
Week 2	@PIT	W 31–17	22	33	295	2	2	—	—	—	—	—
Week 3	NO	W 44–13	14	18	218	2	0	—	—	—	—	—
Week 4	@ARI	W 23–20	18	26	242	1	0	1	24	0	—	—
Week 5	TB	L 35–38	28	34	341	4	1	—	—	—	—	—
Week 6	@JAX	W 20–12	16	27	295	2	0	1	6	0	—	—
Week 7	HOU	W 27–19	17	31	213	1	1	1	3	0	—	—
Week 9	@WAS	W 38–14	21	24	330	4	1	—	—	—	—	—
Week 10	ARI	W 44–22	10	12	178	1	1	1	0	0	—	—
Week 11	@LA	L 19–21	29	44	279	0	4	2	11	0	1	—
Week 12	@TEN	W 30–24	16	26	244	2	0	—	—	—	—	—
Week 13	MIN	W 26–0	14	26	128	0	0	—	—	—	—	—
Week 14	@ATL	W 37–9	20	30	249	3	1	3	23	0	—	—
Week 15	IND	W 18–16	22	34	271	0	0	3	6	0	—	—
Week 16	LA	W 38–37	22	35	270	2	2	3	7	0	—	—
Week 17	@CAR	W 27–10	18	27	147	1	1	2	3	0	1	—
Week 18	@SF	W 13–3	20	26	198	0	0	3	11	0	—	—
Week 20	SF	W 41–6	12	17	124	1	0	—	—	—	—	—
Week 21	LA	W 31–27	25	36	346	3	0	3	9	0	—	—
Week 22	@NE	W 29–13	19	38	202	1	0	2	5	0	—	—
17 games			379	566	4720	30	14	27	122	0	2	0