Sam Darnold
SEA · QB
54%
clears 15.0 pass attempts
Served forecast
Mixture P10
8.0
Mixture P50
15.0
Mixture P90
30.0
Mixture mean
17.4
← Matchups
Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET · Frozen Sep 29
LAC
Los Angeles
Chargers
29%
AT
SEA
Seattle
Seahawks
71%
Lean
SEA 71%
Total
43.4
1-score
39%
R1
28%
One-score game
R4
28%
SEA controls
R2
23%
One-score game
R3
22%
SEA controls
Justin Herbert
LAC · QB · pass attempts
Served forecast
54%
clears 29 pass attempts
Floor
20
Median
29
Ceiling
42
How the passing volume is built
30
Attempts
17.1
Completions
His four scripts
Conditional mean vs mixture
Weighted game environments. Scores describe each cluster's center, not an exact prediction.
Mixture mass · Served forecast
54% of the mixture clears 15 pass attempts
P10 8.0P50 1515+P90 30
Mixture chain
How the passing volume is built
17.4
Attempts
8–30 across scripts
17.5
Completions
Expected completions
17.4 pass attempts
Same inheritance
SEA pass · script swing