DerrickHenry

6'3"252 lbAge 3211 seasonsAlabamaDraft 2016 · R2 P45

Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model

vs Titans · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET

Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring18.2

Pass Attempts0

Carries18.4

Rush Yards91.7

Rush TDs1.1

Receptions1.2

Receiving Yards12

Solo Tackles0

Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.

Shared model

Joint roster forecast

Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters

Relational

Offensive snaps

51%

Defensive snaps

Carries19.2P10–P90 9.0–31.0

Rush yards106.2P10–P90 72.1–140.3

Rush TDs0.82P10–P90 0.0–2.0

Targets1.11P10–P90 0.0–3.0

Receptions1.00P10–P90 0.0–2.0

Receiving yards7.39P10–P90 0.0–24.4

Receiving TDs0.02P10–P90 0.0–0.0

Strongest learned context

Travis Jones · team Calais Campbell · team Jonathan Taylor · opp Seth McGowan · opp Riley Leonard · opp Anderson Castle · opp John Jenkins · team Broderick Washington · team

Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.

The game around the player

Role across game environments.

How the same player changes when the game script changes.

Open matchup

98%

Any-snap probability

Pregame role

Rush yards

carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific

84.5 → 128.4

BAL controls · defensive · slow

BAL controls · high scoring · fast

Receiving yards

target opportunity moves with pass volume; depth, catchability and YAC remain player-specific

6.23 → 8.60

BAL controls · defensive · slow

BAL controls · high scoring · fast

Carries

team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific

16.8 → 21.6

BAL controls · defensive · slow

BAL controls · high scoring · fast

Receptions

route and target opportunity move with pass volume; catch conversion remains player-specific

0.90 → 1.11

BAL controls · balanced · neutral pace

One-score game · balanced · neutral pace

Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.

Public receipt

2025 Projection Report Card

Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data

Rush Yards

±44avg miss · 17 wks

Receptions

±0.8avg miss · 15 wks

Receiving Yards

±9.4avg miss · 17 wks

This season

2026 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	TGT	REC	REC YDS
Week 1	@IND	W 41–23	24	144	3	1	1	19
Week 2	NO	L 17–24	16	68	1	3	3	19
Week 3	@DAL	W 34–31	26	89	2	1	1	0
3 games			66	301	6	5	5	38

Performance history

2025 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	TGT	REC	REC YDS	REC TD
Week 1	@BUF	L 40–41	18	169	2	1	1	13	0
Week 2	CLE	W 41–17	11	23	0	—	—	—	—
Week 3	DET	L 30–38	12	50	1	1	1	7	0
Week 4	@KC	L 20–37	8	42	0	3	2	16	0
Week 5	HOU	L 10–44	15	33	1	1	0	0	0
Week 6	LA	L 3–17	24	122	0	2	1	8	0
Week 8	CHI	W 30–16	21	71	2	1	0	0	0
Week 9	@MIA	W 28–6	19	119	0	1	1	2	0
Week 10	@MIN	W 27–19	20	75	0	3	3	9	0
Week 11	@CLE	W 23–16	18	103	1	2	2	19	0
Week 12	NYJ	W 23–10	21	64	2	2	2	24	0
Week 13	CIN	L 14–32	10	60	1	1	1	44	0
Week 14	PIT	L 22–27	25	94	0	2	1	8	0
Week 15	@CIN	W 24–0	11	100	0	—	—	—	—
Week 16	NE	L 24–28	18	128	2	—	—	—	—
Week 17	@GB	W 41–24	36	216	4	—	—	—	—
Week 18	@PIT	L 24–26	20	126	0	1	0	0	0
17 games			307	1595	16	21	15	150	0