Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model
@ Commanders · Sun, Oct 4 · 9:30 AM ET
Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring25.8
Carries19.5
Rush Yards107.6
Rush TDs1.4
Receptions3.3
Receiving Yards27.7
Receiving TDs0.1
Solo Tackles0
Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.
Shared model
Joint roster forecast
Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters
Offensive snaps
72%
Defensive snaps
1%
Carries19.9P10–P90 9.0–32.0
Rush yards81.9P10–P90 47.7–116.0
Rush TDs1.67P10–P90 0.0–4.0
Targets3.21P10–P90 1.0–6.0
Receptions2.49P10–P90 0.0–5.0
Receiving yards17.2P10–P90 0.2–34.2
Receiving TDs0.03P10–P90 0.0–0.0
Strongest learned context
Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.
The game around the player
Role across game environments.
How the same player changes when the game script changes.
99%
Any-snap probability
RB
Pregame role
Receiving yards
target opportunity moves with pass volume; depth, catchability and YAC remain player-specific
14.0 → 20.7
IND controls · defensive · slow
One-score game · high scoring · fast
Rush yards
carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific
68.1 → 96.2
WAS controls · balanced · neutral pace
IND controls · balanced · neutral pace
Receptions
route and target opportunity move with pass volume; catch conversion remains player-specific
2.13 → 2.86
IND controls · defensive · slow
One-score game · high scoring · fast
Targets
team pass volume changes route opportunity; teammate target competition remains player-specific
2.74 → 3.68
IND controls · defensive · slow
One-score game · high scoring · fast
Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.
Public receipt
2025 Projection Report Card
Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data
Rush Yards
±37.9avg miss · 17 wks
Receptions
±1.1avg miss · 17 wks
Receiving Yards
±12.4avg miss · 17 wks
This season
2026 Game Log
Performance history