NickFolk

6'1"225 lbAge 4119 seasonsArizonaDraft 2007 · R6 P178

Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model

@ Saints · Mon, Oct 5 · 8:15 PM ET

Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring7.8

Field Goals2.1

FG Attempts2.6

Extra Points1.5

Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.

Shared model

Joint roster forecast

Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters

Relational

Offensive snaps

Defensive snaps

FG attempts1.19P10–P90 0.0–3.0

Field goals0.81P10–P90 0.0–2.0

Strongest learned context

Mason Rudolph · opp Sebastian Joseph-Day · opp Aaron Rodgers · opp Tua Tagovailoa · team Pat Freiermuth · opp Bijan Robinson · team Christian Harris · team Maason Smith · team

Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.

The game around the player

Role across game environments.

How the same player changes when the game script changes.

Open matchup

Any-snap probability

Pregame role

The current role has no material stat allocation in this matchup. A zero forecast is still an explicit probabilistic inference, not a missing player.

Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.

This season

2026 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	FGM	FGA	XPM
Week 1	ATL	W 20–13	2	4	1
Week 2	CAR	L 3–34	1	2	—
Week 3	@GB	W 35–14	2	2	3
3 games			5	8	4

Performance history

2025 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	FGM	FGA	XPM
Week 1	PIT	L 32–34	2	2	2
Week 2	BUF	L 10–30	1	1	1
Week 3	@TB	L 27–29	2	2	3
Week 4	NYJ	W 27–21	2	2	1
Week 5	DAL	L 22–37	2	2	—
Week 6	@NYJ	W 13–11	3	3	—
Week 7	CAR	L 6–13	2	2	—
Week 8	@CIN	W 39–38	3	3	2
Week 10	CLE	W 27–20	2	2	3
Week 11	@NE	L 14–27	—	—	2
Week 12	@BAL	L 10–23	1	1	1
Week 13	ATL	W 27–24	2	3	3
Week 14	MIA	L 10–34	1	1	1
Week 15	@JAX	L 20–48	2	2	2
Week 16	@NO	L 6–29	2	2	—
Week 17	NE	L 10–42	1	1	1
16 games			28	29	22