AaronRodgers

6'2"223 lbAge 4222 seasonsCaliforniaDraft 2005 · R1 P24

Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model

@ Browns · Thu, Oct 1 · 8:15 PM ET

Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring11.4

Pass Attempts32.8

Completions17.9

Pass Yards175.9

Pass TDs1.1

Interceptions0.5

Carries0.8

Rush Yards4.1

Rush TDs0.1

Receptions0

Receiving Yards-0.4

Solo Tackles0.1

Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.

Shared model

Joint roster forecast

Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters

Relational

Offensive snaps

90%

Defensive snaps

Pass attempts27.2P10–P90 15.0–41.0

Completions18.4P10–P90 11.0–27.0

Pass yards150.2P10–P90 55.3–245.0

Pass TDs0.37P10–P90 0.0–1.0

Interceptions0.09P10–P90 0.0–0.0

Carries1.40P10–P90 0.0–3.0

Rush yards4.79P10–P90 0.0–28.9

Rush TDs0.02P10–P90 0.0–0.0

Strongest learned context

Nick Folk · opp Jake Bailey · opp Alex Highsmith · team Jack Sawyer · team Patrick Queen · team Kyle Hinton · opp Nick Herbig · team Liam McCullough · opp

Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.

The game around the player

Role across game environments.

How the same player changes when the game script changes.

Open matchup

99%

Any-snap probability

Pregame role

Pass yards

team pass volume changes attempts; conditional passing efficiency remains player-specific

124.6 → 179.5

PIT controls · defensive · slow

One-score game · high scoring · fast

Rush yards

carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific

3.94 → 5.65

CLE controls · balanced · neutral pace

PIT controls · balanced · neutral pace

Pass attempts

drive pace changes team dropbacks; QB role remains in the guarded marginal

23.8 → 30.6

PIT controls · defensive · slow

One-score game · high scoring · fast

Carries

team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific

1.25 → 1.54

CLE controls · balanced · neutral pace

PIT controls · balanced · neutral pace

Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.

Public receipt

2025 Projection Report Card

Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data

Pass Attempts

±6.7avg miss · 16 wks

Pass Yards

±43.2avg miss · 16 wks

Rush Yards

±4.7avg miss · 16 wks

This season

2026 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CMP	ATT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD
Week 1	ATL	W 20–13	24	40	221	1	0	—	—	—
Week 2	@NE	L 3–20	23	39	187	0	1	1	5	0
Week 3	CIN	W 30–27	19	33	292	3	1	1	12	0
3 games			66	112	700	4	2	2	17	0

Performance history

2025 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CMP	ATT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD
Week 1	@NYJ	W 34–32	22	30	244	4	0	—	—	—
Week 2	SEA	L 17–31	18	33	203	1	2	1	3	0
Week 3	@NE	W 21–14	16	23	139	2	1	1	3	0
Week 4	MIN	W 24–21	18	22	200	1	0	1	10	0
Week 6	CLE	W 23–9	21	30	235	2	0	1	1	0
Week 7	@CIN	L 31–33	23	34	249	4	2	1	6	0
Week 8	GB	L 25–35	24	37	219	2	0	—	—	—
Week 9	IND	W 27–20	25	35	203	1	0	1	1	0
Week 10	@LAC	L 10–25	16	31	161	1	2	—	—	—
Week 11	CIN	W 34–12	9	15	116	1	0	1	8	0
Week 13	BUF	L 7–26	10	21	117	0	0	1	0	0
Week 14	@BAL	W 27–22	23	34	284	1	0	1	1	1
Week 15	MIA	W 28–15	23	27	224	2	0	—	—	—
Week 16	@DET	W 29–24	27	41	266	1	0	2	9	0
Week 17	@CLE	L 6–13	21	37	168	0	0	1	6	0
Week 18	BAL	W 26–24	31	47	294	1	0	1	20	0
Week 19	HOU	L 6–30	17	33	146	0	1	—	—	—
16 games			344	530	3468	24	8	13	68	1