Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model
@ Vikings · Sun, Oct 4 · 4:05 PM ET
Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring4.5
Pass Attempts30.8
Completions15
Pass Yards125.6
Pass TDs0.3
Interceptions1.4
Carries2.6
Rush Yards10.6
Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.
Shared model
Joint roster forecast
Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters
Offensive snaps
89%
Defensive snaps
2%
Pass attempts16.8P10–P90 9.0–26.0
Completions9.17P10–P90 5.0–14.0
Pass yards52.4P10–P90 0.0–147.3
Interceptions0.26P10–P90 0.0–1.0
Carries2.27P10–P90 0.0–5.0
Rush yards6.79P10–P90 0.0–30.9
Rush TDs0.02P10–P90 0.0–0.0
Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.
The game around the player
Role across game environments.
How the same player changes when the game script changes.
99%
Any-snap probability
QB
Pregame role
Rush yards
carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific
5.38 → 8.20
MIN controls · balanced · neutral pace
One-score game · balanced · neutral pace
Pass yards
team pass volume changes attempts; conditional passing efficiency remains player-specific
42.4 → 63.4
MIN controls · defensive · slow
MIN controls · high scoring · fast
Carries
team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific
2.02 → 2.53
MIN controls · balanced · neutral pace
One-score game · balanced · neutral pace
Pass attempts
drive pace changes team dropbacks; QB role remains in the guarded marginal
14.9 → 18.6
MIN controls · defensive · slow
MIN controls · high scoring · fast
Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.
Public receipt
2025 Projection Report Card
Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data
Pass Attempts
±4.1avg miss · 4 wks
Pass Yards
±34.6avg miss · 4 wks
Rush Yards
±18.7avg miss · 4 wks
This season
2026 Game Log
No 2026 game data recorded.
Performance history