EmekaEgbuka

6'1"205 lbAge 232 seasonsOhio StateDraft 2025 · R1 P19

Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model

vs Packers · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET

Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring9.9

Carries0.2

Rush Yards0.1

Receptions3.4

Receiving Yards47.4

Receiving TDs0.3

Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.

Shared model

Joint roster forecast

Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters

Relational

Offensive snaps

72%

Defensive snaps

Carries0.24P10–P90 0.0–1.0

Targets5.47P10–P90 2.0–9.0

Receptions3.12P10–P90 1.0–6.0

Receiving yards47.6P10–P90 16.7–78.4

Receiving TDs0.24P10–P90 0.0–1.0

Strongest learned context

Chase Brown · opp Jacob Parrish · team Elijah Simmons · team Miles Killebrew · team Drew Sample · opp DJ Turner II · opp Elijah Roberts · team Erick All · opp

Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.

The game around the player

Role across game environments.

How the same player changes when the game script changes.

Open matchup

99%

Any-snap probability

RECEIVER

Pregame role

Receiving yards

target opportunity moves with pass volume; depth, catchability and YAC remain player-specific

38.6 → 56.8

GB controls · defensive · slow

One-score game · high scoring · fast

Carries

team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific

0.21 → 0.27

GB controls · defensive · slow

One-score game · high scoring · fast

Targets

team pass volume changes route opportunity; teammate target competition remains player-specific

5.02 → 5.94

TB controls · balanced · neutral pace

GB controls · balanced · neutral pace

Receptions

route and target opportunity move with pass volume; catch conversion remains player-specific

2.86 → 3.38

TB controls · balanced · neutral pace

GB controls · balanced · neutral pace

Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.

Public receipt

2025 Projection Report Card

Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data

Rush Yards

±2.6avg miss · 9 wks

Receptions

±1.5avg miss · 16 wks

Receiving Yards

±39.4avg miss · 16 wks

This season

2026 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	TGT	REC	REC YDS	REC TD
Week 1	@CIN	L 27–33	6	5	63	0
Week 2	CLE	L 19–23	5	3	16	1
Week 3	MIN	L 16–23	9	5	62	0
3 games			20	13	141	1

Performance history

2025 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	TGT	REC	REC YDS	REC TD
Week 1	@ATL	W 23–20	1	9	0	6	4	67	2
Week 2	@HOU	W 20–19	—	—	—	7	4	29	1
Week 3	NYJ	W 29–27	—	—	—	8	6	85	0
Week 4	PHI	L 25–31	1	0	0	10	4	101	1
Week 5	@SEA	W 38–35	—	—	—	8	7	163	1
Week 6	SF	W 30–19	—	—	—	4	2	24	0
Week 7	@DET	L 9–24	—	—	—	12	4	58	0
Week 8	@NO	W 23–3	—	—	—	9	3	35	0
Week 10	NE	L 23–28	1	0	0	13	6	115	1
Week 11	@BUF	L 32–44	—	—	—	9	5	40	0
Week 12	@LA	L 7–34	—	—	—	8	3	32	0
Week 13	ARI	W 20–17	—	—	—	8	4	42	0
Week 14	NO	L 20–24	—	—	—	9	2	15	0
Week 15	ATL	L 28–29	—	—	—	7	4	64	0
Week 16	@CAR	L 20–23	—	—	—	2	1	40	0
Week 17	@MIA	L 17–20	—	—	—	5	3	20	0
Week 18	CAR	W 16–14	—	—	—	3	1	8	0
17 games			3	9	0	128	63	938	6