DrakeMaye

6'4"225 lbAge 243 seasonsNorth CarolinaDraft 2024 · R1 P3

Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model

@ Bills · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET

Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring16.5

Pass Attempts28.7

Completions17.3

Pass Yards208.6

Pass TDs1.3

Interceptions0.8

Carries4.8

Rush Yards33.5

Rush TDs0.2

Receptions0

Receiving Yards0.1

Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.

Shared model

Joint roster forecast

Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters

Relational

Offensive snaps

95%

Defensive snaps

Pass attempts25.2P10–P90 14.0–38.0

Completions17.3P10–P90 10.0–25.0

Pass yards172.2P10–P90 77.4–267.1

Pass TDs0.61P10–P90 0.0–2.0

Interceptions0.16P10–P90 0.0–1.0

Carries5.27P10–P90 1.0–11.0

Rush yards27.2P10–P90 3.1–51.3

Rush TDs0.17P10–P90 0.0–1.0

Strongest learned context

Jason Myers · opp Robert Spillane · team Elijah Ponder · team Namdi Obiazor · team Michael Dickson · opp Quintayvious Hutchins · team Chris Stoll · opp Uchenna Nwosu · opp

Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.

The game around the player

Role across game environments.

How the same player changes when the game script changes.

Open matchup

99%

Any-snap probability

Pregame role

Rush yards

carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific

22.4 → 33.1

BUF controls · balanced · neutral pace

One-score game · balanced · neutral pace

Pass yards

team pass volume changes attempts; conditional passing efficiency remains player-specific

144.0 → 205.9

One-score game · defensive · slow

BUF controls · high scoring · fast

Pass attempts

drive pace changes team dropbacks; QB role remains in the guarded marginal

22.2 → 28.6

One-score game · defensive · slow

BUF controls · high scoring · fast

Carries

team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific

4.72 → 5.95

BUF controls · balanced · neutral pace

One-score game · balanced · neutral pace

Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.

Public receipt

2025 Projection Report Card

Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data

Pass Attempts

±7.1avg miss · 17 wks

Pass Yards

±61.6avg miss · 17 wks

Rush Yards

±15.8avg miss · 17 wks

This season

2026 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CMP	ATT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	CAR	RUSH YDS
Week 1	@SEA	L 10–13	23	33	178	1	3	7	47
Week 2	PIT	W 20–3	14	22	208	0	1	2	20
Week 3	@JAX	L 6–35	14	25	199	0	2	4	18
3 games			51	80	585	1	6	13	85

Performance history

2025 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CMP	ATT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	TGT	REC	REC YDS	REC TD
Week 1	LV	L 13–20	30	46	287	1	1	4	11	0	1	1	2	0
Week 2	@MIA	W 33–27	19	23	230	2	0	7	34	1	—	—	—	—
Week 3	PIT	L 14–21	28	37	268	2	1	7	45	0	—	—	—	—
Week 4	CAR	W 42–13	14	17	203	2	0	3	11	1	—	—	—	—
Week 5	@BUF	W 23–20	22	30	273	0	0	3	12	0	—	—	—	—
Week 6	@NO	W 25–19	18	26	261	3	0	7	32	0	—	—	—	—
Week 7	@TEN	W 31–13	21	23	222	2	0	8	62	0	—	—	—	—
Week 8	CLE	W 32–13	18	24	282	3	1	4	53	0	—	—	—	—
Week 9	ATL	W 24–23	19	29	259	2	1	5	23	0	—	—	—	—
Week 10	@TB	W 28–23	16	31	270	2	1	6	14	0	—	—	—	—
Week 11	NYJ	W 27–14	25	34	281	1	0	2	5	0	—	—	—	—
Week 12	@CIN	W 26–20	22	35	294	1	1	4	23	0	—	—	—	—
Week 13	NYG	W 33–15	24	31	282	2	0	4	15	0	—	—	—	—
Week 15	BUF	L 31–35	14	23	155	0	1	4	43	2	—	—	—	—
Week 16	@BAL	W 28–24	31	45	380	2	1	7	31	0	—	—	—	—
Week 17	@NYJ	W 42–10	19	21	256	5	0	3	22	0	—	—	—	—
Week 18	MIA	W 38–10	14	18	191	1	0	5	41	0	—	—	—	—
Week 19	LAC	W 16–3	17	29	268	1	1	7	69	0	1	0	0	0
Week 20	HOU	W 28–16	16	27	179	3	1	2	12	0	—	—	—	—
Week 21	@DEN	W 10–7	10	21	86	0	0	7	68	1	—	—	—	—
Week 22	SEA	L 13–29	27	44	295	2	2	4	38	0	—	—	—	—
17 games			424	614	5222	37	12	103	664	5	2	1	2	0