C.J.Stroud

6'3"218 lbAge 244 seasonsOhio StateDraft 2023 · R1 P2

Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model

vs Cowboys · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET

Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring18.2

Pass Attempts33.3

Completions24.4

Pass Yards271.9

Pass TDs1.5

Interceptions0.5

Carries2.7

Rush Yards17.4

Rush TDs0.1

Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.

Shared model

Joint roster forecast

Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters

Relational

Offensive snaps

95%

Defensive snaps

Pass attempts35.1P10–P90 20.0–52.0

Completions20.7P10–P90 12.0–30.0

Pass yards217.4P10–P90 122.5–312.2

Pass TDs1.54P10–P90 0.0–3.0

Interceptions0.21P10–P90 0.0–1.0

Carries2.78P10–P90 0.0–6.0

Rush yards12.5P10–P90 0.0–36.7

Rush TDs0.07P10–P90 0.0–0.0

Strongest learned context

Aiden Fisher · team Wade Woodaz · team Tommy Togiai · team Ka'imi Fairbairn · team Tommy Doman · opp Reid Ferguson · opp Ray Davis · opp Tyler Bass · opp

Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.

The game around the player

Role across game environments.

How the same player changes when the game script changes.

Open matchup

99%

Any-snap probability

Pregame role

Rush yards

carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific

9.76 → 15.3

One-score game · defensive · slow

HOU controls · high scoring · fast

Pass yards

team pass volume changes attempts; conditional passing efficiency remains player-specific

181.3 → 253.8

One-score game · defensive · slow

HOU controls · high scoring · fast

Carries

team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific

2.42 → 3.15

One-score game · defensive · slow

HOU controls · high scoring · fast

Pass attempts

drive pace changes team dropbacks; QB role remains in the guarded marginal

32.0 → 38.2

HOU controls · balanced · neutral pace

DAL controls · balanced · neutral pace

Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.

Public receipt

2025 Projection Report Card

Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data

Pass Attempts

±6.7avg miss · 14 wks

Pass Yards

±45.7avg miss · 14 wks

Rush Yards

±11.1avg miss · 14 wks

This season

2026 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CMP	ATT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	CAR	RUSH YDS
Week 1	BUF	L 31–36	26	38	274	2	2	15
Week 2	CIN	L 6–20	30	53	353	0	3	29
Week 3	@IND	L 17–19	16	27	167	1	2	10
3 games			72	118	794	3	7	54

Performance history

2025 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CMP	ATT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD
Week 1	@LA	L 9–14	19	27	188	0	1	5	32	0
Week 2	TB	L 19–20	13	25	207	1	0	3	27	0
Week 3	@JAX	L 10–17	25	37	204	1	2	3	23	0
Week 4	TEN	W 26–0	22	29	233	2	0	4	11	0
Week 5	@BAL	W 44–10	23	27	244	4	0	1	30	0
Week 7	@SEA	L 19–27	23	50	229	1	1	2	25	0
Week 8	SF	W 26–15	30	39	318	2	1	6	30	0
Week 9	DEN	L 15–18	6	10	79	0	0	2	12	0
Week 13	@IND	W 20–16	22	35	276	0	1	1	0	0
Week 14	@KC	W 20–10	15	31	203	1	0	2	5	0
Week 15	ARI	W 40–20	22	28	260	3	0	4	10	0
Week 16	LV	W 23–21	23	35	187	1	0	2	2	0
Week 17	@LAC	W 20–16	16	28	244	2	2	1	2	0
Week 18	IND	W 38–30	14	22	169	1	0	2	5	1
Week 19	@PIT	W 30–6	21	32	250	1	1	1	0	0
Week 20	@NE	L 16–28	20	47	212	1	4	2	11	0
14 games			314	502	3503	21	13	41	225	1