Backfield IQ
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Indianapolis ColtsWR

JoshDowns

5'9"171 lbAge 254 seasonsNorth CarolinaDraft 2023 · R3 P79
Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model
@ Commanders · Sun, Oct 4 · 9:30 AM ET
Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring10.1
Carries0.1
Rush Yards-0.1
Receptions4.4
Receiving Yards44.7
Receiving TDs0.2
Solo Tackles0.2

Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.

Shared model
Joint roster forecast
Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters
Relational
Offensive snaps
74%
Defensive snaps
1%
Carries0.22P10–P90 0.0–1.0
Targets5.33P10–P90 2.0–9.0
Receptions3.85P10–P90 1.0–7.0
Receiving yards53.4P10–P90 22.6–84.2
Receiving TDs0.28P10–P90 0.0–1.0
Strongest learned context
Arden Key · teamAdetomiwa Adebawore · teamCarson Vinson · oppJohn Simpson · oppTyler Loop · oppRoger Rosengarten · oppCaden Curry · teamDeForest Buckner · team

Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.

The game around the player
Role across game environments.
How the same player changes when the game script changes.
Open matchup
99%
Any-snap probability
RECEIVER
Pregame role
Receiving yards
target opportunity moves with pass volume; depth, catchability and YAC remain player-specific
44.5 → 63.1
IND controls · defensive · slow
One-score game · high scoring · fast
Receptions
route and target opportunity move with pass volume; catch conversion remains player-specific
3.36 → 4.35
IND controls · defensive · slow
One-score game · high scoring · fast
Targets
team pass volume changes route opportunity; teammate target competition remains player-specific
4.66 → 6.02
IND controls · defensive · slow
One-score game · high scoring · fast
Carries
team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific
0.19 → 0.24
WAS controls · balanced · neutral pace
IND controls · balanced · neutral pace

Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.

Public receipt
2025 Projection Report Card
Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data
Receptions
±1.4avg miss · 16 wks
Receiving Yards
±18.7avg miss · 16 wks
This season

2026 Game Log

WeekOppResultTGTRECREC YDSREC TD
Week 1BALL 23–4142370
Week 2@KCL 30–3397720
Week 3HOUW 19–17115770
3 games24141860
Performance history

2025 Game Log

WeekOppResultCARRUSH YDSRUSH TDTGTRECREC YDSREC TDSOLOAST
Week 1MIAW 33–8———32120——
Week 2DENW 29–28———86510——
Week 3@TENW 41–20———32340——
Week 4@LAL 20–27———54240——
Week 5LVW 40–6———86540——
Week 6ARIW 31–27———76421——
Week 8TENW 38–14———33391——
Week 9@PITL 20–27———96501——
Week 10ATLW 31–25———2130——
Week 12@KCL 20–23———62100——
Week 13HOUL 16–20———62440——
Week 14@JAXL 19–36———542301—
Week 15@SEAL 16–18———53131——
Week 16SFL 27–4813095650——
Week 17JAXL 17–23———523401—
Week 18@HOUL 30–381-5044610——
16 games2-208858559420