Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model
@ Texans · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET
Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring3.6
Carries3.2
Rush Yards17.6
Receptions0.7
Receiving Yards5.6
Receiving TDs0.1
Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.
Shared model
Joint roster forecast
Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters
Offensive snaps
20%
Defensive snaps
3%
Carries3.15P10–P90 1.0–6.0
Rush yards16.1P10–P90 0.0–50.2
Rush TDs0.02P10–P90 0.0–0.0
Targets1.03P10–P90 0.0–3.0
Receptions0.67P10–P90 0.0–2.0
Receiving yards3.96P10–P90 0.0–21.0
Receiving TDs0.04P10–P90 0.0–0.0
Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.
The game around the player
Role across game environments.
How the same player changes when the game script changes.
90%
Any-snap probability
RB
Pregame role
Receiving yards
target opportunity moves with pass volume; depth, catchability and YAC remain player-specific
3.22 → 4.80
One-score game · defensive · slow
HOU controls · high scoring · fast
Rush yards
carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific
13.2 → 18.9
HOU controls · balanced · neutral pace
DAL controls · balanced · neutral pace
Receptions
route and target opportunity move with pass volume; catch conversion remains player-specific
0.58 → 0.77
One-score game · defensive · slow
HOU controls · high scoring · fast
Targets
team pass volume changes route opportunity; teammate target competition remains player-specific
0.88 → 1.18
One-score game · defensive · slow
HOU controls · high scoring · fast
Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.
Public receipt
2025 Projection Report Card
Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data
Rush Yards
±25avg miss · 11 wks
Receptions
±0.9avg miss · 11 wks
Receiving Yards
±9.9avg miss · 11 wks
This season
2026 Game Log
Performance history