JaxonSmith-Njigba

6'0"197 lbAge 244 seasonsOhio StateDraft 2023 · R1 P20

Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model

vs Chargers · Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET

Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring21.2

Carries0.3

Rush Yards1.5

Receptions6.4

Receiving Yards98.3

Receiving TDs0.8

Solo Tackles0.1

Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.

Shared model

Joint roster forecast

Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters

Relational

Offensive snaps

79%

Defensive snaps

Carries0.12P10–P90 0.0–1.0

Rush yards0.48P10–P90 0.0–4.0

Targets9.76P10–P90 5.0–16.0

Receptions7.28P10–P90 3.0–12.0

Receiving yards88.8P10–P90 58.0–119.7

Receiving TDs0.50P10–P90 0.0–1.0

Strongest learned context

Josh Jobe · team Andy Borregales · opp Jarran Reed · team Ernest Jones · team Christian Gonzalez · opp Leonard Williams · team Behren Morton · opp Alijah Vera-Tucker · opp

Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.

The game around the player

Role across game environments.

How the same player changes when the game script changes.

Open matchup

99%

Any-snap probability

RECEIVER

Pregame role

Rush yards

carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific

0.38 → 0.58

One-score game · defensive · slow

SEA controls · high scoring · fast

Receiving yards

target opportunity moves with pass volume; depth, catchability and YAC remain player-specific

74.3 → 103.9

One-score game · defensive · slow

SEA controls · high scoring · fast

Carries

team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific

0.10 → 0.13

One-score game · defensive · slow

SEA controls · high scoring · fast

Targets

team pass volume changes route opportunity; teammate target competition remains player-specific

8.92 → 10.6

SEA controls · balanced · neutral pace

One-score game · balanced · neutral pace

Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.

Public receipt

2025 Projection Report Card

Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data

Pass Yards

±1.5avg miss · 9 wks

Rush Yards

±3.2avg miss · 17 wks

Receptions

±1.9avg miss · 17 wks

Receiving Yards

±30avg miss · 17 wks

This season

2026 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	TGT	REC	REC YDS	REC TD
Week 1	NE	W 13–10	11	8	122	1
Week 2	@ARI	W 31–7	11	9	155	3
Week 3	@WAS	L 31–33	14	10	128	2
3 games			36	27	405	6

Performance history

2025 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	TGT	REC	REC YDS	REC TD	SOLO	AST
Week 1	SF	L 13–17	—	—	—	13	9	124	0	—	—
Week 2	@PIT	W 31–17	—	—	—	10	8	103	0	—	—
Week 3	NO	W 44–13	—	—	—	6	5	96	1	—	—
Week 4	@ARI	W 23–20	3	11	0	5	4	79	0	—	—
Week 5	TB	L 35–38	—	—	—	9	8	132	1	—	—
Week 6	@JAX	W 20–12	—	—	—	13	8	162	1	—	—
Week 7	HOU	W 27–19	—	—	—	14	8	123	1	2	—
Week 9	@WAS	W 38–14	1	11	0	9	8	129	0	—	—
Week 10	ARI	W 44–22	—	—	—	6	5	93	1	—	—
Week 11	@LA	L 19–21	1	11	0	12	9	105	0	1	—
Week 12	@TEN	W 30–24	1	4	0	10	8	167	2	—	—
Week 13	MIN	W 26–0	—	—	—	4	2	23	0	—	—
Week 14	@ATL	W 37–9	1	-1	0	10	7	92	2	—	—
Week 15	IND	W 18–16	—	—	—	9	7	113	0	—	—
Week 16	LA	W 38–37	—	—	—	13	8	96	1	—	—
Week 17	@CAR	W 27–10	—	—	—	12	9	72	0	—	—
Week 18	@SF	W 13–3	—	—	—	8	6	84	0	—	—
Week 20	SF	W 41–6	—	—	—	4	3	19	1	—	—
Week 21	LA	W 31–27	—	—	—	12	10	153	1	—	—
Week 22	@NE	W 29–13	—	—	—	10	4	27	0	—	—
17 games			7	36	0	189	136	1992	12	3	0