KennethWalker

5'9"211 lbAge 255 seasonsMichigan StateDraft 2022 · R2 P41

Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model

@ Raiders · Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET

Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring15.3

Carries15.1

Rush Yards81.3

Rush TDs0.4

Receptions2.2

Receiving Yards19.9

Receiving TDs0.1

Solo Tackles0

Assist Tackles0

Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.

Shared model

Joint roster forecast

Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters

Relational

Offensive snaps

76%

Defensive snaps

Carries16.5P10–P90 8.0–27.0

Rush yards88.9P10–P90 54.8–123.0

Rush TDs0.60P10–P90 0.0–2.0

Targets4.21P10–P90 1.0–8.0

Receptions3.03P10–P90 1.0–6.0

Receiving yards25.0P10–P90 8.0–42.1

Receiving TDs0.18P10–P90 0.0–1.0

Strongest learned context

Alex Palczewski · opp Felix Anudike-Uzomah · team Jonah Coleman · opp Chris Jones · team Bryson Eason · team Jeremy Crawshaw · opp Jaden Hicks · team Matt Peart · opp

Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.

The game around the player

Role across game environments.

How the same player changes when the game script changes.

Open matchup

99%

Any-snap probability

Pregame role

Receiving yards

target opportunity moves with pass volume; depth, catchability and YAC remain player-specific

20.5 → 29.9

KC controls · defensive · slow

One-score game · high scoring · fast

Rush yards

carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific

75.6 → 103.6

One-score game · balanced · neutral pace

KC controls · balanced · neutral pace

Receptions

route and target opportunity move with pass volume; catch conversion remains player-specific

2.63 → 3.44

KC controls · defensive · slow

One-score game · high scoring · fast

Targets

team pass volume changes route opportunity; teammate target competition remains player-specific

3.64 → 4.78

KC controls · defensive · slow

One-score game · high scoring · fast

Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.

Public receipt

2025 Projection Report Card

Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data

Rush Yards

±27.2avg miss · 17 wks

Receptions

±1.6avg miss · 17 wks

Receiving Yards

±16.6avg miss · 17 wks

This season

2026 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	TGT	REC	REC YDS	REC TD
Week 1	DEN	W 31–10	23	173	1	6	3	18	1
Week 2	IND	W 33–30	24	117	0	10	6	61	0
Week 3	@MIA	W 24–10	18	70	1	2	2	3	1
3 games			65	360	2	18	11	82	2

Performance history

2025 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	TGT	REC	REC YDS	REC TD
Week 1	SF	L 13–17	10	20	0	3	3	4	0
Week 2	@PIT	W 31–17	13	105	1	1	1	13	0
Week 3	NO	W 44–13	16	38	2	1	1	12	0
Week 4	@ARI	W 23–20	19	81	0	2	1	29	0
Week 5	TB	L 35–38	10	86	0	1	1	0	0
Week 6	@JAX	W 20–12	10	34	0	1	1	3	0
Week 7	HOU	W 27–19	17	66	0	—	—	—	—
Week 9	@WAS	W 38–14	11	42	0	2	2	19	0
Week 10	ARI	W 44–22	14	67	0	1	1	3	0
Week 11	@LA	L 19–21	16	67	1	3	3	44	0
Week 12	@TEN	W 30–24	11	71	0	4	3	30	0
Week 13	MIN	W 26–0	13	56	0	4	3	18	0
Week 14	@ATL	W 37–9	10	29	0	3	1	-1	0
Week 15	IND	W 18–16	9	17	0	1	1	2	0
Week 16	LA	W 38–37	11	100	1	3	3	64	0
Week 17	@CAR	W 27–10	15	51	0	2	2	6	0
Week 18	@SF	W 13–3	16	97	0	4	4	36	0
Week 20	SF	W 41–6	19	116	3	3	3	29	0
Week 21	LA	W 31–27	19	62	1	4	4	49	0
Week 22	@NE	W 29–13	27	135	0	4	2	26	0
17 games			286	1340	9	47	40	386	0