JalenNailor

6'0"190 lbAge 275 seasonsMichigan StateDraft 2022 · R6 P191

Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model

vs Chiefs · Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET

Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring5.3

Carries0.1

Rush Yards0.5

Receptions1.7

Receiving Yards23.2

Receiving TDs0.2

Solo Tackles0.2

Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.

Shared model

Joint roster forecast

Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters

Relational

Offensive snaps

83%

Defensive snaps

Carries0.06P10–P90 0.0–0.0

Targets2.80P10–P90 1.0–5.0

Receptions1.97P10–P90 0.0–4.0

Receiving yards36.8P10–P90 5.9–67.6

Receiving TDs0.24P10–P90 0.0–1.0

Strongest learned context

JJ Pegues · team Jonah Laulu · team Thomas Booker · team Ashton Jeanty · team Bradley Pinion · opp De'Von Achane · opp Keith Cooper Jr. · opp Ollie Gordon II · opp

Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.

The game around the player

Role across game environments.

How the same player changes when the game script changes.

Open matchup

99%

Any-snap probability

RECEIVER

Pregame role

Receiving yards

target opportunity moves with pass volume; depth, catchability and YAC remain player-specific

29.8 → 43.4

KC controls · defensive · slow

One-score game · high scoring · fast

Receptions

route and target opportunity move with pass volume; catch conversion remains player-specific

1.82 → 2.14

One-score game · balanced · neutral pace

KC controls · balanced · neutral pace

Targets

team pass volume changes route opportunity; teammate target competition remains player-specific

2.58 → 3.04

One-score game · balanced · neutral pace

KC controls · balanced · neutral pace

Carries

team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific

0.05 → 0.07

KC controls · defensive · slow

One-score game · high scoring · fast

Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.

Public receipt

2025 Projection Report Card

Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data

Receptions

±1.4avg miss · 17 wks

Receiving Yards

±21.1avg miss · 17 wks

This season

2026 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	TGT	REC	REC YDS
Week 1	MIA	W 27–13	5	3	27
Week 2	@LAC	W 26–14	3	1	9
Week 3	@NO	W 35–27	3	1	16
3 games			11	5	52

Performance history

2025 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	TGT	REC	REC YDS	REC TD	SOLO	AST
Week 1	@CHI	W 27–24	—	—	—	3	1	28	0	—	—
Week 2	ATL	L 6–22	—	—	—	5	3	31	0	1	—
Week 3	CIN	W 48–10	—	—	—	5	3	37	0	—	—
Week 4	@PIT	L 21–24	—	—	—	5	1	2	1	—	—
Week 5	@CLE	W 21–17	1	15	0	4	3	27	0	—	—
Week 7	PHI	L 22–28	—	—	—	4	2	37	0	—	—
Week 8	@LAC	L 10–37	—	—	—	1	0	0	0	—	—
Week 9	@DET	W 27–24	—	—	—	4	1	16	0	1	—
Week 10	BAL	L 19–27	—	—	—	6	5	124	1	—	—
Week 11	CHI	L 17–19	—	—	—	1	1	16	0	—	—
Week 12	@GB	L 6–23	—	—	—	1	0	0	0	1	—
Week 13	@SEA	L 0–26	—	—	—	1	0	0	0	2	—
Week 14	WAS	W 31–0	—	—	—	3	3	30	0	—	—
Week 15	@DAL	W 34–26	1	-2	0	5	3	47	2	—	—
Week 16	@NYG	W 16–13	—	—	—	2	0	0	0	—	—
Week 17	DET	W 23–10	—	—	—	1	0	0	0	—	—
Week 18	GB	W 16–3	—	—	—	3	3	49	0	—	—
17 games			2	13	0	54	29	444	4	5	0