Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model
@ Texans · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET
Carries0.8
Rush Yards1.9
Receptions0.2
Receiving Yards0.7
Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.
Shared model
Joint roster forecast
Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters
Offensive snaps
5%
Defensive snaps
0%
Carries0.87P10–P90 0.0–2.0
Rush yards2.64P10–P90 0.0–36.8
Targets0.11P10–P90 0.0–1.0
Receptions0.07P10–P90 0.0–0.0
Receiving yards0.16P10–P90 0.0–17.2
Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.
The game around the player
Role across game environments.
How the same player changes when the game script changes.
53%
Any-snap probability
RB
Pregame role
Receiving yards
target opportunity moves with pass volume; depth, catchability and YAC remain player-specific
0.13 → 0.19
One-score game · defensive · slow
HOU controls · high scoring · fast
Rush yards
carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific
2.17 → 3.10
HOU controls · balanced · neutral pace
DAL controls · balanced · neutral pace
Targets
team pass volume changes route opportunity; teammate target competition remains player-specific
0.10 → 0.13
One-score game · defensive · slow
HOU controls · high scoring · fast
Carries
team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific
0.78 → 0.96
HOU controls · balanced · neutral pace
DAL controls · balanced · neutral pace
Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.
Public receipt
2025 Projection Report Card
Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data
Rush Yards
±10.7avg miss · 7 wks
Receptions
±0.7avg miss · 5 wks
Receiving Yards
±4.7avg miss · 7 wks
This season
2026 Game Log
Performance history