TrevorLawrence

6'6"220 lbAge 266 seasonsClemsonDraft 2021 · R1 P1

Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model

@ Bengals · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET

Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring22.1

Pass Attempts31.5

Completions21.9

Pass Yards260

Pass TDs2

Interceptions0.7

Carries3.9

Rush Yards21

Rush TDs0.5

Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.

Shared model

Joint roster forecast

Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters

Relational

Offensive snaps

95%

Defensive snaps

Pass attempts32.5P10–P90 18.0–49.0

Completions19.0P10–P90 11.0–28.0

Pass yards222.6P10–P90 127.8–317.5

Pass TDs2.14P10–P90 0.0–4.0

Interceptions0.43P10–P90 0.0–1.0

Carries3.87P10–P90 1.0–8.0

Rush yards16.5P10–P90 0.0–40.6

Rush TDs0.24P10–P90 0.0–1.0

Strongest learned context

Shedeur Sanders · opp Antonio Johnson · team DaVon Hamilton · team Dennis Gardeck · team Quinshon Judkins · opp Jahlani Tavai · team Elgton Jenkins · opp Andre Szmyt · opp

Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.

The game around the player

Role across game environments.

How the same player changes when the game script changes.

Open matchup

99%

Any-snap probability

Pregame role

Pass yards

team pass volume changes attempts; conditional passing efficiency remains player-specific

185.3 → 263.8

One-score game · defensive · slow

CIN controls · high scoring · fast

Rush yards

carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific

13.6 → 19.3

CIN controls · balanced · neutral pace

JAX controls · balanced · neutral pace

Pass attempts

drive pace changes team dropbacks; QB role remains in the guarded marginal

28.6 → 36.7

One-score game · defensive · slow

CIN controls · high scoring · fast

Carries

team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific

3.46 → 4.30

CIN controls · balanced · neutral pace

JAX controls · balanced · neutral pace

Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.

Public receipt

2025 Projection Report Card

Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data

Pass Attempts

±5.9avg miss · 17 wks

Pass Yards

±36.5avg miss · 17 wks

Rush Yards

±10.6avg miss · 17 wks

This season

2026 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CMP	ATT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	CAR	RUSH YDS
Week 1	CLE	W 34–10	18	23	245	4	0	2	3
Week 2	@DEN	L 13–20	17	29	189	0	1	2	6
Week 3	NE	W 35–6	19	28	182	3	1	4	25
3 games			54	80	616	7	2	8	34

Performance history

2025 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CMP	ATT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD
Week 1	CAR	W 26–10	19	30	178	1	1	2	14	0
Week 2	@CIN	L 27–31	24	42	271	3	2	2	4	0
Week 3	HOU	W 17–10	20	40	222	0	1	1	10	0
Week 4	@SF	W 26–21	21	31	174	1	0	4	12	0
Week 5	KC	W 31–28	18	25	221	1	1	10	54	2
Week 6	SEA	L 12–20	27	42	258	2	0	2	10	0
Week 7	LA	L 7–35	23	48	296	1	0	2	18	0
Week 9	@LV	W 30–29	23	33	220	0	1	9	24	2
Week 10	@HOU	L 29–36	13	24	158	1	1	5	35	0
Week 11	LAC	W 35–6	14	22	153	1	1	5	9	1
Week 12	@ARI	W 27–24	18	30	256	3	3	4	30	0
Week 13	@TEN	W 25–3	16	27	229	2	0	4	25	0
Week 14	IND	W 36–19	17	30	244	2	0	4	16	0
Week 15	NYJ	W 48–20	20	32	330	5	0	5	51	1
Week 16	@DEN	W 34–20	23	36	279	3	0	6	20	1
Week 17	@IND	W 23–17	23	37	263	0	1	8	26	2
Week 18	TEN	W 41–7	22	30	255	3	0	2	11	0
Week 19	BUF	L 24–27	18	30	207	3	2	6	31	0
17 games			359	589	4214	32	14	81	400	9