JaylenWaddle

5'10"185 lbAge 276 seasonsAlabamaDraft 2021 · R1 P6

Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model

@ 49ers · Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET

Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring12.8

Pass Attempts0.1

Completions0.1

Pass Yards0.4

Carries0.1

Rush Yards1.3

Receptions4.4

Receiving Yards64.3

Receiving TDs0.3

Solo Tackles0.2

Assist Tackles0.1

Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.

Shared model

Joint roster forecast

Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters

Relational

Offensive snaps

77%

Defensive snaps

Carries0.17P10–P90 0.0–1.0

Rush yards1.81P10–P90 0.0–5.3

Targets5.74P10–P90 2.0–10.0

Receptions3.89P10–P90 1.0–7.0

Receiving yards61.3P10–P90 30.4–92.1

Receiving TDs0.17P10–P90 0.0–1.0

Strongest learned context

Matt Araiza · opp Hunter Nourzad · opp D.J. Jones · team Jordan Jackson · team Mike Caliendo · opp Harrison Butker · opp Kris Abrams-Draine · team Jahdae Barron · team

Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.

The game around the player

Role across game environments.

How the same player changes when the game script changes.

Open matchup

99%

Any-snap probability

RECEIVER

Pregame role

Receiving yards

target opportunity moves with pass volume; depth, catchability and YAC remain player-specific

50.6 → 72.7

One-score game · defensive · slow

SF controls · high scoring · fast

Rush yards

carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific

1.48 → 2.13

SF controls · balanced · neutral pace

DEN controls · balanced · neutral pace

Receptions

route and target opportunity move with pass volume; catch conversion remains player-specific

3.41 → 4.36

One-score game · defensive · slow

SF controls · high scoring · fast

Targets

team pass volume changes route opportunity; teammate target competition remains player-specific

5.03 → 6.44

One-score game · defensive · slow

SF controls · high scoring · fast

Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.

Public receipt

2025 Projection Report Card

Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data

Rush Yards

±7.4avg miss · 4 wks

Receptions

±1.6avg miss · 16 wks

Receiving Yards

±28.5avg miss · 16 wks

This season

2026 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	TGT	REC	REC YDS
Week 1	@KC	L 10–31	3	1	2
Week 2	JAX	W 20–13	10	8	138
Week 3	LA	W 30–26	8	2	10
3 games			21	11	150

Performance history

2025 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	TGT	REC	REC YDS	REC TD	SOLO	AST
Week 1	@IND	L 8–33	—	—	—	5	4	30	0	—	—
Week 2	NE	L 27–33	—	—	—	6	5	68	1	—	—
Week 3	@BUF	L 21–31	—	—	—	6	5	39	1	1	—
Week 4	NYJ	W 27–21	—	—	—	6	3	48	0	—	—
Week 5	@CAR	L 24–27	—	—	—	9	6	110	1	—	—
Week 6	LAC	L 27–29	—	—	—	8	6	95	0	—	1
Week 7	@CLE	L 6–31	—	—	—	4	1	15	0	—	—
Week 8	@ATL	W 34–10	—	—	—	6	5	99	1	—	—
Week 9	BAL	L 6–28	—	—	—	9	6	82	0	—	—
Week 10	BUF	W 30–13	—	—	—	7	5	84	1	1	—
Week 11	WAS	W 16–13	—	—	—	7	3	52	0	—	—
Week 13	NO	W 21–17	—	—	—	6	3	40	0	—	—
Week 14	@NYJ	W 34–10	1	21	0	7	5	50	1	—	—
Week 15	@PIT	L 15–28	—	—	—	4	2	26	0	1	—
Week 16	CIN	L 21–45	—	—	—	9	5	72	0	1	—
Week 17	TB	W 20–17	1	7	0	1	0	0	0	—	—
16 games			2	28	0	100	64	910	6	4	1