Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model
vs Rams · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET
Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring19.8
Pass Attempts28.9
Completions19
Pass Yards211
Pass TDs1.8
Interceptions0.5
Carries5.7
Rush Yards27.4
Rush TDs0.4
Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.
Shared model
Joint roster forecast
Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters
Offensive snaps
94%
Defensive snaps
2%
Pass attempts29.0P10–P90 16.0–43.0
Completions16.9P10–P90 10.0–25.0
Pass yards156.5P10–P90 61.6–251.3
Pass TDs1.47P10–P90 0.0–3.0
Interceptions0.31P10–P90 0.0–1.0
Carries5.70P10–P90 1.0–11.0
Rush yards26.8P10–P90 2.7–50.9
Rush TDs0.11P10–P90 0.0–0.0
Strongest learned context
Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.
The game around the player
Role across game environments.
How the same player changes when the game script changes.
99%
Any-snap probability
QB
Pregame role
Rush yards
carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific
20.3 → 33.8
LA controls · defensive · slow
One-score game · high scoring · fast
Pass yards
team pass volume changes attempts; conditional passing efficiency remains player-specific
129.8 → 184.1
LA controls · defensive · slow
One-score game · high scoring · fast
Carries
team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific
4.91 → 6.57
LA controls · defensive · slow
One-score game · high scoring · fast
Pass attempts
drive pace changes team dropbacks; QB role remains in the guarded marginal
26.5 → 31.8
PHI controls · balanced · neutral pace
LA controls · balanced · neutral pace
Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.
Public receipt
2025 Projection Report Card
Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data
Pass Attempts
±6avg miss · 16 wks
Pass Yards
±63.6avg miss · 16 wks
Rush Yards
±18.2avg miss · 16 wks
This season
2026 Game Log
Performance history