Backfield IQ
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Buffalo BillsWR

DJMoore

6'0"213 lbAge 299 seasonsMarylandDraft 2018 · R1 P24
Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model
vs Patriots · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET
Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring8.5
Pass Attempts0
Completions0
Pass Yards0.1
Pass TDs0
Carries0.8
Rush Yards3.2
Rush TDs0
Receptions2.6
Receiving Yards37.8
Receiving TDs0.3
Solo Tackles0

Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.

Shared model
Joint roster forecast
Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters
Relational
Offensive snaps
66%
Defensive snaps
1%
Carries0.39P10–P90 0.0–1.0
Rush yards1.40P10–P90 0.0–4.9
Targets3.82P10–P90 1.0–7.0
Receptions2.08P10–P90 0.0–4.0
Receiving yards34.0P10–P90 3.2–64.8
Receiving TDs0.26P10–P90 0.0–1.0
Strongest learned context
Dee Alford · teamEd Oliver · teamKa'imi Fairbairn · oppKayshon Boutte · oppChristian Benford · teamBlake Fisher · oppMichael Hoecht · teamJaylin Noel · opp

Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.

The game around the player
Role across game environments.
How the same player changes when the game script changes.
Open matchup
99%
Any-snap probability
RECEIVER
Pregame role
Rush yards
carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific
1.11 → 1.72
One-score game · defensive · slow
BUF controls · high scoring · fast
Receiving yards
target opportunity moves with pass volume; depth, catchability and YAC remain player-specific
28.9 → 39.2
One-score game · defensive · slow
BUF controls · high scoring · fast
Carries
team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific
0.34 → 0.44
One-score game · defensive · slow
BUF controls · high scoring · fast
Targets
team pass volume changes route opportunity; teammate target competition remains player-specific
3.50 → 4.23
BUF controls · balanced · neutral pace
One-score game · balanced · neutral pace

Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.

Public receipt
2025 Projection Report Card
Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data
Rush Yards
±5avg miss · 17 wks
Receptions
±2.2avg miss · 17 wks
Receiving Yards
±27.1avg miss · 17 wks
This season

2026 Game Log

WeekOppResultTGTRECREC YDSREC TD
Week 1@HOUW 36–31851001
Week 2DETW 41–31————
Week 3LACW 24–16106670
3 games18111671
Performance history

2025 Game Log

WeekOppResultCARRUSH YDSRUSH TDTGTRECREC YDSREC TDSOLOAST
Week 1MINL 24–2738053570——
Week 2@DETL 21–52———65460——
Week 3DALW 31–1437054211——
Week 4@LVW 25–24———543801—
Week 6@WASW 25–24210053420——
Week 7NOW 26–1419053430——
Week 8@BALL 16–3023074730——
Week 9@CINW 47–42117164720——
Week 10NYGW 24–20———4000——
Week 11@MINW 19–1713031180——
Week 12PITW 31–28———75642——
Week 13@PHIW 24–15110052170——
Week 14@GBL 21–28———31-40——
Week 15CLEW 31–3———54652——
Week 16GBW 22–16112075971——
Week 17@SFL 38–42———4170——
Week 18DETL 16–19———31110——
Week 19GBW 31–271-5076641——
Week 20LAL 17–20180855211—
17 games1782110061783820