DakPrescott

6'2"230 lbAge 3311 seasonsMississippi StateDraft 2016 · R4 P135

Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model

@ Texans · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET

Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring17.1

Pass Attempts34.7

Completions21.5

Pass Yards234.2

Pass TDs1.8

Interceptions0.6

Carries2.3

Rush Yards11

Rush TDs0.1

Solo Tackles0.1

Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.

Shared model

Joint roster forecast

Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters

Relational

Offensive snaps

90%

Defensive snaps

Pass attempts30.2P10–P90 17.0–45.0

Completions19.6P10–P90 11.0–28.0

Pass yards192.2P10–P90 97.4–287.1

Pass TDs1.33P10–P90 0.0–3.0

Interceptions1.07P10–P90 0.0–3.0

Carries2.99P10–P90 0.0–6.0

Rush yards14.5P10–P90 0.0–38.6

Strongest learned context

Dominic Zvada · opp Von Miller · team Jordan Stout · opp Jaishawn Barham · team Otito Ogbonnia · team Rashan Gary · team Aaron Stinnie · opp Ben Mann · opp

Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.

The game around the player

Role across game environments.

How the same player changes when the game script changes.

Open matchup

99%

Any-snap probability

Pregame role

Pass yards

team pass volume changes attempts; conditional passing efficiency remains player-specific

159.7 → 228.9

One-score game · defensive · slow

HOU controls · high scoring · fast

Rush yards

carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific

11.9 → 17.0

HOU controls · balanced · neutral pace

DAL controls · balanced · neutral pace

Pass attempts

drive pace changes team dropbacks; QB role remains in the guarded marginal

26.5 → 34.0

One-score game · defensive · slow

HOU controls · high scoring · fast

Carries

team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific

2.67 → 3.30

HOU controls · balanced · neutral pace

DAL controls · balanced · neutral pace

Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.

Public receipt

2025 Projection Report Card

Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data

Pass Attempts

±6.2avg miss · 17 wks

Pass Yards

±55avg miss · 17 wks

Rush Yards

±10.4avg miss · 17 wks

This season

2026 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CMP	ATT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	CAR	RUSH YDS
Week 1	@NYG	L 20–28	22	34	175	2	1	2	14
Week 2	WAS	W 37–20	26	31	279	4	0	4	26
Week 3	BAL	L 31–34	25	41	276	1	0	4	19
3 games			73	106	730	7	1	10	59

Performance history

2025 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CMP	ATT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	SOLO	AST
Week 1	@PHI	L 20–24	21	33	188	0	0	1	3	0	1	—
Week 2	NYG	W 40–37	38	52	361	2	1	3	17	0	—	—
Week 3	@CHI	L 14–31	31	41	251	1	2	—	—	—	—	—
Week 4	GB	T 40–40	31	40	319	3	0	1	2	1	—	—
Week 5	@NYJ	W 37–22	18	29	237	4	0	4	29	0	—	—
Week 6	@CAR	L 27–30	25	34	261	3	0	1	0	0	—	—
Week 7	WAS	W 44–22	21	30	264	3	0	3	8	0	—	—
Week 8	@DEN	L 24–44	19	31	188	0	2	6	31	0	—	—
Week 9	ARI	L 17–27	24	38	250	1	1	4	34	0	—	—
Week 11	@LV	W 33–16	25	33	268	4	0	—	—	—	—	—
Week 12	PHI	W 24–21	23	35	354	2	1	3	11	1	—	—
Week 13	KC	W 31–28	27	40	320	2	1	—	—	—	—	—
Week 14	@DET	L 30–44	31	48	376	1	2	3	14	0	1	—
Week 15	MIN	L 26–34	23	38	294	0	0	1	2	0	—	—
Week 16	LAC	L 17–34	21	30	244	2	0	2	14	0	—	—
Week 17	@WAS	W 30–23	19	37	307	2	0	4	24	0	—	—
Week 18	@NYG	L 17–34	7	11	70	0	0	1	0	0	—	—
17 games			404	600	4552	30	10	37	189	2	2	0