Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model
vs Chiefs · Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET
Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring11.3
Pass Attempts27.3
Completions16.4
Pass Yards169.4
Pass TDs1.3
Interceptions0.7
Carries0.9
Rush Yards1.5
Rush TDs0.1
Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.
Shared model
Joint roster forecast
Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters
Offensive snaps
91%
Defensive snaps
1%
Pass attempts31.7P10–P90 18.0–47.0
Completions15.9P10–P90 9.0–23.0
Pass yards177.4P10–P90 82.5–272.2
Pass TDs1.19P10–P90 0.0–3.0
Interceptions0.48P10–P90 0.0–2.0
Carries2.66P10–P90 0.0–6.0
Strongest learned context
Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.
The game around the player
Role across game environments.
How the same player changes when the game script changes.
99%
Any-snap probability
QB
Pregame role
Pass yards
team pass volume changes attempts; conditional passing efficiency remains player-specific
144.0 → 209.5
KC controls · defensive · slow
One-score game · high scoring · fast
Carries
team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific
2.33 → 2.99
KC controls · defensive · slow
One-score game · high scoring · fast
Pass attempts
drive pace changes team dropbacks; QB role remains in the guarded marginal
29.3 → 34.5
One-score game · balanced · neutral pace
KC controls · balanced · neutral pace
Rush yards
carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific
0.00 → 0.00
KC controls · defensive · slow
One-score game · high scoring · fast
Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.
Public receipt
2025 Projection Report Card
Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data
Pass Attempts
±9avg miss · 10 wks
Pass Yards
±80avg miss · 10 wks
Rush Yards
±2.3avg miss · 4 wks
This season
2026 Game Log
Performance history