MatthewStafford

6'3"214 lbAge 3818 seasonsGeorgiaDraft 2009 · R1 P1

Week 4 ProjectionBFIQ model

@ Eagles · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET

Projected fantasy pointsPPR scoring18.6

Pass Attempts33.5

Completions20.5

Pass Yards251.2

Pass TDs2.4

Interceptions0.6

Carries0.8

Rush Yards1.3

Solo Tackles0

Backfield IQ model: 2025 per-game production adjusted for opponent defense.

Shared model

Joint roster forecast

Guarded specialist marginals across both complete rosters

Relational

Offensive snaps

94%

Defensive snaps

Pass attempts25.7P10–P90 14.0–39.0

Completions19.2P10–P90 11.0–28.0

Pass yards225.5P10–P90 130.7–320.3

Pass TDs1.49P10–P90 0.0–3.0

Interceptions0.18P10–P90 0.0–1.0

Carries1.95P10–P90 0.0–4.0

Rush yards0.58P10–P90 0.0–24.7

Strongest learned context

Wesley Bailey · team Desjuan Johnson · team Kaelon Black · opp Aaron Donald · team Eddy Piñeiro · opp Mac Jones · opp Poona Ford · team Jordan James · opp

Ranges integrate uncertainty in game environment, team volume, participation, allocation, and conversion. Context links show learned attention, not isolated causal effects.

The game around the player

Role across game environments.

How the same player changes when the game script changes.

Open matchup

99%

Any-snap probability

Pregame role

Rush yards

carry opportunity moves with run volume; blocker/front matchup and gain efficiency remain player-specific

0.48 → 0.69

PHI controls · balanced · neutral pace

LA controls · balanced · neutral pace

Pass yards

team pass volume changes attempts; conditional passing efficiency remains player-specific

189.6 → 269.1

LA controls · defensive · slow

One-score game · high scoring · fast

Pass attempts

drive pace changes team dropbacks; QB role remains in the guarded marginal

22.4 → 29.3

LA controls · defensive · slow

One-score game · high scoring · fast

Carries

team run volume changes package exposure; backfield handoff competition remains player-specific

1.76 → 2.18

PHI controls · balanced · neutral pace

LA controls · balanced · neutral pace

Scenario means integrate back to the guarded player distribution. “Validated” is awarded per market; a descriptive forecast is not automatically a betting signal.

Public receipt

2025 Projection Report Card

Walk-forward: each week projected using only prior data

Pass Attempts

±5.1avg miss · 17 wks

Pass Yards

±75.3avg miss · 17 wks

Rush Yards

±3avg miss · 11 wks

This season

2026 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CMP	ATT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	CAR	RUSH YDS
Week 1	SF	L 7–27	15	25	155	0	1	1	0
Week 2	NYG	W 28–6	22	30	327	4	1	1	2
Week 3	@DEN	L 26–30	30	53	390	2	2	2	13
3 games			67	108	872	6	4	4	15

Performance history

2025 Game Log

Week	Opp	Result	CMP	ATT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	CAR	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD
Week 1	HOU	W 14–9	21	29	245	1	0	2	0	0
Week 2	@TEN	W 33–19	23	33	298	2	1	—	—	—
Week 3	@PHI	L 26–33	19	33	196	2	1	—	—	—
Week 4	IND	W 27–20	29	40	375	3	0	2	6	0
Week 5	SF	L 23–26	30	46	389	3	0	1	0	0
Week 6	@BAL	W 17–3	17	26	181	1	0	2	3	0
Week 7	@JAX	W 35–7	21	33	182	5	0	1	2	0
Week 9	NO	W 34–10	24	32	281	4	0	—	—	—
Week 10	@SF	W 42–26	24	36	280	4	0	—	—	—
Week 11	SEA	W 21–19	15	28	130	2	0	—	—	—
Week 12	TB	W 34–7	25	35	273	3	0	—	—	—
Week 13	@CAR	L 28–31	18	28	243	2	2	—	—	—
Week 14	@ARI	W 45–17	22	31	281	3	0	—	—	—
Week 15	DET	W 41–34	24	38	368	2	1	1	2	0
Week 16	@SEA	L 37–38	29	49	457	3	0	2	6	0
Week 17	@ATL	L 24–27	22	38	269	2	3	—	—	—
Week 18	ARI	W 37–20	25	39	259	4	0	1	3	0
Week 19	@CAR	W 34–31	24	42	304	3	1	1	2	0
Week 20	@CHI	W 20–17	20	42	258	0	0	—	—	—
Week 21	@SEA	L 27–31	22	34	374	3	0	2	16	0
17 games			454	712	5643	52	9	15	40	0