Luther Burden III
CHI · WR
50%
clears 5.0 targets
Served forecast
Mixture P10
2.0
Mixture P50
5.0
Mixture P90
8.0
Mixture mean
4.7
← Matchups
Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET · Frozen Sep 29
NYJ
New York
Jets
40%
AT
CHI
Chicago
Bears
60%
Lean
CHI 60%
Total
42.6
1-score
44%
R1
29%
NYJ controls
R4
26%
CHI controls
R3
23%
CHI controls
R2
22%
One-score game
Geno Smith
NYJ · QB · pass attempts
Served forecast
52%
clears 16 pass attempts
Floor
8.0
Median
16
Ceiling
31
How the passing volume is built
17.8
Attempts
18.4
Completions
His four scripts
Conditional mean vs mixture
Weighted game environments. Scores describe each cluster's center, not an exact prediction.
Mixture mass · Served forecast
50% of the mixture clears 5 targets
P10 2.0P50 5.05.0+P90 8.0
Mixture chain
How the receiving volume is built
31
Team targets
Offense passing volume
4.7
His share
15% of the targets
70%
Catch rate
3.3 receptions
7.7
Yards / target
Served gain
36 receiving yards
Same inheritance
CHI pass · script swing