Noah Gray
KC · TE
71%
clears 1.0 targets
Served forecast
Mixture P10
0.0
Mixture P50
1.0
Mixture P90
3.0
Mixture mean
1.5
← Matchups
Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET · Frozen Sep 29
KC
Kansas City
Chiefs
70%
AT
LV
Las Vegas
Raiders
30%
Lean
KC 70%
Total
47.6
1-score
39%
R4
28%
One-score game
R1
27%
KC controls
R3
24%
One-score game
R2
21%
KC controls
Patrick Mahomes
KC · QB · pass attempts
Served forecast
56%
clears 27 pass attempts
Floor
19
Median
27
Ceiling
40
How the passing volume is built
28
Attempts
21
Completions
His four scripts
Conditional mean vs mixture
Weighted game environments. Scores describe each cluster's center, not an exact prediction.
Mixture mass · Served forecast
71% of the mixture clears 1 targets
P10 0.0P50 1.01.0+P90 3.0
Mixture chain
How the receiving volume is built
30
Team targets
Offense passing volume
1.5
His share
5% of the targets
68%
Catch rate
1 receptions
5.9
Yards / target
Served gain
8.6 receiving yards
Same inheritance
KC pass · script swing