Drew Sample
CIN · TE
54%
clears 2.0 targets
Served forecast
Mixture P10
0.0
Mixture P50
2.0
Mixture P90
5.0
Mixture mean
2.2
← Matchups
Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET · Frozen Sep 29
JAX
Jacksonville
Jaguars
42%
AT
CIN
Cincinnati
Bengals
58%
Lean
CIN 58%
Total
51.5
1-score
44%
R1
28%
JAX controls
R4
27%
CIN controls
R3
23%
CIN controls
R2
22%
One-score game
Trevor Lawrence
JAX · QB · pass attempts
Served forecast
51%
clears 26 pass attempts
Floor
17
Median
26
Ceiling
39
How the passing volume is built
26
Attempts
19
Completions
His four scripts
Conditional mean vs mixture
Weighted game environments. Scores describe each cluster's center, not an exact prediction.
Mixture mass · Served forecast
54% of the mixture clears 2 targets
P10 0.0P50 2.02.0+P90 5.0
Mixture chain
How the receiving volume is built
33
Team targets
Offense passing volume
2.2
His share
7% of the targets
93%
Catch rate
2 receptions
5.4
Yards / target
Served gain
11.8 receiving yards
Same inheritance
CIN pass · script swing